Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 5/9/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

2 hours ago

Apr 20, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti (41) throws a pitch against the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Houston Astros	Cincinnati Reds
Team Records	16-23	20-19
Spread	+1.5 -149	-1.5 123
Moneyline	+139	-168
Total	Over 8.5 (-105)	Under 8.5 (-115)
Where	Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
When	Saturday, May 9, 2026
Time	04:10 PM EDT
TV	MLB.TV

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, May 9th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 20-19 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 10-9 home record and are coming off a 0-10 loss at home against the Astros. They will face the Nationals and the Guardians next.

The Reds have a .218 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 28. Sal Stewart adds a team‑high 10 home runs.

Chase Burns (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 3-1 record, 2.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 16-23 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL West. They have a 7-13 away record and are coming off a 10-0 win on the road against the Reds. They will face the Mariners and the Rangers next.

The Astros have a .264 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .439 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 5.67 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .324 batting average, also adding a team‑high 13 home runs. Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 27.

Spencer Arrighetti (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 4-0 record, 1.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: May 9, 2026

Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Burns Record this season: 3-1 ERA: 2.20
Home Record: 2-1
Last 5 against Astros: –

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

The Reds have won 14 of their last 15 day games following a home loss.
The Astros have lost seven of their last eight games following a win.
The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents.
The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against American League opponents following a home loss.
The Reds have won the first inning in each of their last five Saturday day home games.
The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Saturday home games.
The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Probable Starting Pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti Record this season: 4-0 ERA: 1.96
Road Record: 2-0
Last 5 against Reds: 0-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

The underdogs have won each of the Astros’ last six games at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds have lost each of their last eight games.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Astros’ last eight games at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven home games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games against American League opponents.
The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six home games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six home games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Reds’ last eight games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Seven of the Astros’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of Spencer Arrighetti’s last nine road appearances as a starter.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six Saturday games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last five day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Saturday day appearances with the Reds as favorites.
Chase Burns ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.20) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents.
Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 day games.
Yordan Alvarez ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (47) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.218).
The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (284).
The Astros rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (75).
The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.67).

Astros vs Reds Prediction

The Astros are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Reds and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.

In this Astros vs Reds Prediction, the Reds are coming as -165 home favorites. Astros shut down the Reds yesterday with a 10-0 win and the Reds are big favorites, even though Arrighetti has a better ERA than Burns. Houston also has a better offense to offer Arrighetti run support and are facing a Cincinnati squad that has been struggling mightily, having lost its last 8 games. Too much value to pass here, so take the Astros on the moneyline on the road at a +140 price.