| MATCHUP | Houston Astros | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 62-50 | 62-51 |
| Where | Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts | |
| When | Sunday, August 3, 2025 | |
| Time | 11:35 AM EDT | |
| TV | Roku | |
The Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox meet Sunday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Houston Astros will send out Framber Valdez for the start here and Valdez is 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA and 141 strikeouts this season. In his career, Valdez is 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 23 strikeouts against Boston. Lucas Giolito will get the nod for the Red Sox here and is 7-2 with a 3.80 ERA and 77 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Houston, Giolito is 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA and 28 strikeouts.
Houston Astros Recap
The Houston Astros come into this game looking to rebound from a 7-3 loss at the hands of the Red Sox last time out to sit at 62-49 on the year. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the Marlins.
Astros Lose 7 Of Their Last 9
Jose Altuve has 114 hits including 17 doubles, 18 home runs and 57 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 102 hits with 18 doubles, 11 homers and 40 RBIs with 15 stolen bases as well. Jake Meyers has 15 doubles as well and Christian Walker has 13 home runs and 55 RBIs but has also accrued a team-high 116 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 6 stolen bases while Jake Meyers has 14 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has a team-high 19 home runs with 50 RBIs of his own and Cam Smith has contributed 7 homers and 45 RBIs.
- The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight home games against the Astros following a home win.
- The Astros have won seven of their last eight day games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Astros have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games after playing the previous day.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five home games against the Astros following a home win.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Christian Walker has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Framber Valdez has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last nine Sunday appearances in day games.
- Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances in day games.
- Jake Meyers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 road appearances against AL opponents.
Boston Red Sox Recap
The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to build on their win over the Astros from Saturday’s matchup to improve to 61-51 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will duke it out with the Kansas City Royals at home.
Red Sox Win 4 In A Row & 6 Of Last 7
Alex Bregman has 73 hits including 20 doubles along with 14 home runs and 44 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 102 hits with 17 home runs, 65 RBIs and 17 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 116 hits with 29 doubles, 12 triples, 11 home runs, 60 RBIs and a team-high 18 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell’s added 51 hits with 10 doubles, 6 homers and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 20 home runs with 57 RBIs and 6 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 14 homers, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 49 RBIs and 14 stolen bases this season.
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last 11 home games after playing the previous day.
- The Astros have lost each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 14 games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his 10 previous appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
- Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Trevor Story has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against AL opponents.
- Triston Casas has hit a home run in four of his last five home appearances against AL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as underdogs against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Astros’ last five games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction
I’m going to side with the Astros here. I get the case to be made for the Red Sox who are in better form right now, but the Astros have a seismic edge in starting pitching here with Valdez going and Giolito’s been far less effective at home over the course of the season. I think Houston has to get it together at some point and I think they do here to salvage something from this series. Give me the Astros here.