Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 4/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the Baltimore Orioles meet Tuesday in MLB action from Camden Yards. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Kai Wei Teng for the start here and Teng is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 16 strikeouts this season. This will be Teng’s first career start against the Orioles. Shane Baz will start for the Orioles here and is 0-2 with a 5.08 ERA and 23 strikeouts this season. In his career, Baz is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 14 strikeouts against the Astros.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add on to their 7-4 win over the Yankees last time out to sit at 11-18 this season. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a set against the Boston Red Sox.

Astros Snap Two-Game Slide

Yordan Alvarez has 38 hits with 9 doubles, 11 home runs and 26 RBIs while Christian Walker has 30 hits with 8 doubles, 7 home runs and 23 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 27 hits with 7 doubles, 3 home runs and 8 RBIs and Carlos Correa has 27 hits with 7 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 21 hits with 5 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs. Yainer Diaz also has 17 hits with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 12 RBIs.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to bounce back from their 5-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox last time out to sit at 13-15 this season. After this series, the Orioles will head on the road for a series against the New York Yankees.

Orioles Drop Back-To-Back Games

Taylor Ward has 34 hits with 13 doubles and 11 RBIs while Gunnar Henderson has 25 hits with 4 doubles, 9 home runs and 18 RBIs and Pete Alonso has 21 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 10 RBIs. Adley Rutschman has 17 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs. Jeremiah Jackson has 24 hits with 2 doubles, 5 home runs and 19 RBIs while Dylan Beavers also has 17 hits with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 8 RBIs.

Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: April 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz      Record this season: 0-2      ERA: 5.08
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Astros: 0-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last eight road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have won eight of their last 10 night games following a loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have covered the run line each of their last four night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home night games.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in each of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kai-Wei Teng      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 2.16
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Orioles: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Orioles have lost 14 of their last 15 night games against the Astros following a home loss.
• The Astros have won each of their last six night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Orioles.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six night games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have won the first inning in five of their last six games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last 10 night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Orioles’ last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last 14 games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Orioles’ last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Adley Rutschman has hit at least one home run in each of his last two appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Colton Cowser has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances against AL West opponents.
• Taylor Ward ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.424) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in four of the Astros’ last five night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against the Orioles.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (38) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank T25th in the league for triples this season (1).
• The Orioles rank T25th in the league for steals this season (14).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (63).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.97).

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

I’m on the Orioles in this one. I know the Astros have been picking up some wins here and there as of late, but the thing for me in this game is that the Astros bullpen still remains as one of the worst in baseball right now and the Orioles should be able to get to Teng who was really hittable in the starter role last season. Give me Baltimore.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Baltimore -125