Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 9/14/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Braves Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 14th at the Truist Park the third game of this series, with the Astros having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have a 65-83 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NL East. The Braves have a 35-39 home record and 66-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-6 home defeat by the Astros, and are 1-6 in their last 7 games. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games and are playing the Nationals and the Tigers next.

The Braves have a .242 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .391 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 4.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Matt Olson leads the Braves with 153 hits, and he is also the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 82, and in home runs with 24.

Joey Wentz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 5-6 record, 5.61 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have an 81-68 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL West. The Astros have a 38-36 road record and 67-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-2 road victory over the Braves, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Rangers and the Mariners next.

The Astros have a .252 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .400 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 146 hits, adding a team-high 25 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, while Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 80. 

Framber Valdez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 12-9 record, 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: September 14, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Joey Wentz      Record this season: 5-6      ERA: 5.61
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Astros: 0-1

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last six Sunday games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won five of the Astros’ last six games at Truist Park.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Sunday games as favorites.
• The Braves have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road day games.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Sunday games as favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez      Record this season: 12-9      ERA: 3.42
• Road Record: 6-6
• Last 5 against Braves: 1-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The road team has won each of the last nine games between the Astros and Braves.
• The Braves have lost eight of their last nine games against AL West opponents.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 home games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against the Braves.
• The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Astros’ last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Braves’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last six games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Jurickson Profar has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last two day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Austin Riley has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Astros.
• Jarred Kelenic has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 home appearances against AL opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yainer Diaz has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Astros as favorites against NL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances with the Astros as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Framber Valdez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his six previous appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 15 road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.299) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 28th in the league for steals this season (73).
• The Braves rank T26th in the league for doubles this season (221).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1397).
• The Astros rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.231).

Astros vs Braves Prediction

The Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings against the Astros, but the Astros have won their last 6 visits in Atlanta. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Astros vs Braves Prediction, the Astros are coming as -140 road favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, as they have terrible home/away split and are coming into this matchup in terrible form. Wentz for the Braves has a 8.42 home ERA and has 10 earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched in his last two starts. Valdez for the Astros has a 4.67 road ERA and 9 earned runs in his last two starts. I expect both pitchers to be hit hard, so take the over 8.5 runs in this one.