Home Run Derby Prediction 07/14/2025 MLB Picks

We square off Monday in the MLB Home Run Derby at Truist Park. Here’s a Home Run Derby Prediction. This article will include a Home Run Derby Pick.

Cal Raleigh, +300 – Raleigh leads MLB with 38 homers, just one of five hitters with at least 30 entering the break. Raleigh has five homers in the month of July and has eight games this season where he’s hit two homers. Raleigh is on a record setting pace, which is why he’s the favorite, but no catcher has ever won the home run derby. 

Oneil Cruz, +330 – Oneil Cruz has hit 16 home runs this year and has never hit more than 21 in a season, but don’t let the low totals fool you. Cruz has a very powerful, quick swing that does damage, and his homer hit in May against the Brewers clocked in at 122.9 MPH, which is the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era. If Cruz gets on a roll, it could be scary. 

James Wood, +400 – James Wood has 24 homers in his second season and has hit 33 for his career. Wood is quickly becoming one of the better young power hitters in the league, and he does a fine job of going opposite field which only adds to the hype. Wood has also played seven games at Truist Park, so his familiarity gives him an edge.  

Byron Buxton, +850 – Byron Buxton has 21 homers, which is already the second most he’s hit for his career in a single season. Buxton hit a 479-foot homer last month against the Rangers. Buxton is also from Baxley, Georgia, which is about three hours from Truist Park, so it’s a bit of a homecoming. 

Matt Olson, +900 – Matt Olson has played the last four seasons with the Braves and has hit 62 homers at Truist Park in a little over 1,200 plate appearances. While Olson hasn’t been on a tear with his power this season, this is a guy who hit 54 homers in 2023 and was an MVP candidate. 

Junior Caminero, +950 – Junior Caminero has come out of nowhere this season, as he played just 50 games in his first two seasons combined, and has now racked up 23 bombs in 91 games this year. Caminero has incredible bat speed and a flair for the dramatics as shown in the Dominican Professional Baseball League. 

Brent Rooker, +1000 – Brent Rooker has 20 homers this season and has hit 89 homers since the 2023 season. You can count on two hands the amount of hitters who have more homers than Rooker during that span. Rooker doesn’t get the attention because he plays for the Athletics, but he’s one of the best power hitters in the sport. 

Jazz Chisholm, +1400 – Jazz Chisholm already has 17 homers on the season, which puts him on pace to set a new career high. Chisholm has played 27 games at Truist Park and has hit five homers in those games. Chisholm isn’t the biggest player in the league and doesn’t have raw power, but his swagger is on a million, and you know he’ll want to put on a show.  

Home Run Derby Prediction

This feels as wide open of a Home Run Derby in recent memory as even the favorites are young players who lack experience in big situations. The big names or even the HR Derby vets like Pete Alonso aren’t here. You can realistically make a case for just about any player in the field.

As for a pick and where the most value is at, it’s with Rooker, as he’s been a top-10 HR hitter over the last three years. As previously mentioned, there’s fewer than 10 hitters who have more homers than Rooker since 2023, and those names include Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Schwarber. I’d also take a shot on Olson because of his familiarity at Truist Park, but if forced to pick one hitter, the most value is with Rooker and a chance to make 10 times my money.