Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Tigers vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, October 4th at the T-Mobile Park in Game 1 of the ALDS. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners finished the regular season with a 90-72 record and were placed first in the AL West. The Mariners have a 51-30 home record and are 89-67 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-6 home defeat by the Dodgers, and have three consecutive losses.

The Mariners have a .244 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .420 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners in hits with 174, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .267 batting average. Cal Raleigh leads the team both in RBI with 125, and in home runs with 60.

George Kirby (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 10-8 record, 4.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers finished the regular season with an 89-76 record and were placed second in the AL Central. The Tigers have a 43-41 road record and are 84-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-3 road win over the Guardians, and have been alternating wins and losses in their last 8 games. Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games.

The Tigers have a .247 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .413 slugging percentage. Detroit’s pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Javier Baez leads the Tigers with 5 hits in the postseason, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .455 batting average. Wenceel Perez has 2 RBI and Dillon Dingler one home run.

Reliever Troy Melton (R) is the projected starter for the Tigers, and he has a 3-2 record, 2.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: October 4, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby      Record this season: 10-8      ERA: 4.21
• Home Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Tigers: 1-4

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last seven home games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Tigers have lost 10 of their last 11 games following a win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Troy Melton      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 3-3      ERA: 3.52
• Road Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Mariners: –

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the last eight games between the Tigers and Mariners.
• The Mariners have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Tigers following a loss.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 night games against the Tigers at T-Mobile Park following a loss.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last nine night games at T-Mobile Park following a win.
• The Tigers have won the first inning in each of their last three games as underdogs against the Mariners.
• The Tigers have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Tigers have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against the Mariners at T-Mobile Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Tigers’ last five road playoff games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mariners’ last seven night games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Mariners’ last six night games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Tigers’ last six night games against American League opponents.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one Double in each of the Mariners’ last four home games against AL opponents.
• Julio Rodriguez has hit a home run in four of the Mariners’ last five games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• George Kirby has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against AL opponents.
• George Kirby has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
• Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Cal Raleigh ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (60) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Riley Greene has hit a home run in each of the Tigers’ last three games as underdogs against the Mariners.
• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Riley Greene ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (36) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (234).
• The Mariners rank T29th in the league for triples this season (9).
• The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (61).
• The Tigers rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (36).

Tigers vs Mariners Prediction

The Mariners have won their last four meetings against the Tigers, but both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings in Seattle. Their last three meetings have gone over the total.

In this Tigers vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -220 home favorites. The Tigers are going for a bullpen game, hence the big favoritism for the Mariners, but laying -220 feels a bit too much. Kirby has been up and down this season for the Mariners, and while he has been playing better at home, he has been struggling lately, with a 5.40 ERA across his last 5 starts. He was torched in his only start against the Tigers this season, with 4 earned runs in 5 innings pitched. I like the guests to keep this one close, so take the Detroit Tigers by +1.5 runs in this one.