Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction MLB Picks 7/5/24

David Racey

1 year ago

Cincinnati Reds (42-45) vs Detroit Tigers (39-48)

Game Info: Friday, July 5, 2024 at 7:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)

The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -115 / Detroit Tigers -105 — Over/Under: 9.5

In this article we will formulate a Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 5th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

The Tigers recent form and recent player performance
The Reds recent form and recent play performance
Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Detroit
Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Cincinnati
Recent betting trends in games played between Detroit and Cincinnati
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Detroit and Cincinnati

Tigers Pitching Continues to Struggle

The Detroit Tigers are 39-48 this season and they have lost six of their last eight games. Detroit is coming off of a series loss against Minnesota, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Tigers lost three out of four against the Angels, lost two out of three against the Phillies, and won two out of three against the White Sox. Detroit is just 5-12 in their last 17 games and they are fourth in the AL Central.

The Detroit pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average. The Tigers offense has scored 356 runs with a .228 batting average and a .292 on base percentage. Riley Greene is batting .259 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Tigers this season. Detroit has allowed at least five runs in seven of their last eight games.

Reds Going for Four Straight

The Cincinnati Reds are 42-45 this year and they have won four of their last five games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series win against the Yankees, where they won all three games by scores of 5-4, 3-2, and 8-4. Prior to that series, the Reds split four games with the Cardinals, lost two out of three against the Pirates, and lost two out of three against the Red Sox. Cincinnati is 5-2 in their last seven games and they are third in the NL Central.

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 374 runs with a .227 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .252 with 15 home runs and 39 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has scored at least five runs in six of their last ten games.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Reese Olson, who is 2-8 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 89.1 innings pitched this year. Olson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Carson Spiers, who is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 37.1 innings pitched this season. Spiers has allowed three earned runs or more in two of his last three starts.

Why the Reds will beat the Tigers

The Tigers have lost each of their last four road games against National League opponents.
The Reds have won each of their last four home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games against teams that held a losing record.
The Reds have covered the run line each of their last five games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Tigers’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Reds’ last four home games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Tigers and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last three road games against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last five night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
TJ Friedl has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in each of the Reds’ last six games against AL Central opponents at Great American Ball Park.
Jonathan India has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances at Great American Ball Park against AL opponents that held a losing record.
TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in each of the Reds’ last four home games.
TJ Friedl has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

Mark Canha has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against NL Central opponents.
Javier Baez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Javier Baez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Carson Kelly has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances.
Javier Baez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Javier Baez has scored a run in each of the Tigers’ last seven Friday games against NL opponents that held a losing record.