Cubs vs Marlins Prediction 5/19/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 19th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 28-19 this season after they swept the White Sox in three games by scores of 13-3, 7-3, and 6-2. In their game three win, Chicago allowed the tying run in the fourth inning, but they scored the next five runs to pull away with the win. The Cubs recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Suzuki, who had two RBIs in the game. Chicago started Rea, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 5.1 innings, while Pomeranz picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Cubs won two out of three against the Marlins, but lost two out of three against the Mets before that. Chicago has won five of their last six games, and they are currently first in the NL Central standings. The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .248 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 270 runs with a .254 batting average and a .331 on-base percentage this season. Pete Crow-Armstrong has led Chicago with 12 home runs and 38 RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki has added 11 home runs and 39 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Ben Brown, who is 3-3 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 41.2 innings pitched this season. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 18-27 this year after they won two out of three against the Rays by scores of 9-4, 0-4, and 5-1. In their game three win, Miami trailed 1-0 in the third inning, but they scored three runs in the fourth and added two more in the sixth for the win. The Marlins recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Lopez, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Miami started Quantrill, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the win, while four relievers combined for four scoreless innings to finish the game. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Cubs and two out of three against the White Sox. Miami has won three of their last four games and they are currently last in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 5.34 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and a .260 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 187 runs with a .248 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs, while Matt Mervis has added seven home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Edward Cabrera, who is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 29.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Cubs 

• The underdogs have won three of the Marlins’ last four games.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last six games as road favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Cubs will beat the Marlins 

• The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight night games following a home win.
• The Cubs have won each of their last seven games as road favorites following a home win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against the Cubs at LoanDepot Park following a home win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in four of their last five games at LoanDepot Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Monday night games as favorites.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Marlins’ last five night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Cubs’ last five road games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Cubs’ last nine night games at LoanDepot Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four night games between the Cubs and Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one Single in five of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez has scored at least one run in six of the Marlins’ last seven games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded seven strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in four of his last 11 appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight Monday night appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Marlins.
• Carson Kelly has recorded at least one Single in each of his six previous appearances with the Cubs as road favorites.
• Justin Turner has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances at LoanDepot Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 12 games as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Ian Happ has scored at least one run in seven of the Cubs’ last eight road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ian Happ has recorded an RBI in each of the Cubs’ last four road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.585) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 26th in the league for runs allowed this season (253).
• The Marlins rank 25th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.260).
• The Cubs rank T1st in the league for steals this season (59).
• The Cubs rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (270).

Cubs vs Marlins Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup after winning a series over the weekend, but Miami will be at home. The Marlins are 12-13 at home this year, while the Cubs are 13-9 on the road. Chicago is coming off a dominant series against the White Sox, where they scored 26 runs in three games, and just won two out of three against Miami last week. The Cubs are starting Brown, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. Miami is going with Cabrera, who has some rough numbers on the season, but has been better in his last two starts. I don’t love the pitching matchup here, and this Chicago offense could score nine on their own, so take the over here. 

David Racey's Pick: Over 8.5