Colorado (21-72) vs Cincinnati (48-46)
July 11, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati -1.5 — Over/Under: +9
In this article, we will formulate a Rockies vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 11, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview
The Colorado Rockies (21-72, 11-36 Away) lost six consecutive series to the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Brewers, Astros, White Sox, and Red Sox. Colorado lost all three games in the most recent series against the Red Sox. In Wednesday’s 10-2 defeat, Kyle Farmer hit a two-run homer to lead the offense, while Antonio Senzatela took the loss after allowing four runs on eight hits with three strikeouts and one walk in 5.0 innings.
This year, the Rockies average 3.53 runs per game (27th in the MLB) on a .230/.291/.380 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Rockies’ staff has a 5.66 ERA (30th) and 1.57 WHIP (30th). Hunter Goodman leads the Rockies with a .280 batting average, 17 home runs, and 52 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Rockies is German Marquez, who is 3-10 in 18 starts this season, with a 5.84 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 89.1 innings.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds (48-46, 26-21 Home) returned home from three series on the road, where they lost to the Red Sox and Phillies, and split with the Marlins. Cincy was on a four-game losing skid and lost the opening two games of the series against the Marlins, but earned a split with back-to-back wins. In the most recent 6-0 victory, Austin Hays led the offense with three RBI, while Nick Lodolo got the win after allowing no runs on three hits with four strikeouts and no walks across 6.0 innings of work.
This season, the Reds average 4.59 runs per game (10th in the MLB) on a .245/.316/.395 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Reds’ staff has a 3.95 ERA (17th) and 1.24 WHIP (11th). Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with a .280 batting average, 18 home runs, and 63 RBI this season.
Chase Burns will take the mound for the Reds on Friday. The 22-year-old right-hander has a 0-1 record in three starts this year with an 8.10 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 10.0 innings.
Why the Rockies will cover
The Reds have lost each of their last three games as home favorites against NL West opponents following a home win.
The road team has won each of the last three games between the Rockies and Reds.
The Rockies have covered the run line in five of their last six games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 games after playing the previous day.
Total Runs Facts
Four of the Rockies’ last five games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Sixteen of the Reds’ last 21 night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rockies’ last eight games as road underdogs.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Rockies and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Matchup/League Facts
The Reds rank T10th in the league for RBIs this season (408).
The Reds rank 21st in the league for strikeouts this season (749).
The Rockies rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.66).
The Rockies rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (612).
Rockies vs Reds Prediction
The Reds won nine of the previous ten H2H encounters, including the last four, while this season, Cincinnati swept the Rockies in three games in Denver. I am backing the visitors to put up a fight and stay close in this one, as I am sure German Marquez, who had a solid June with a 2.97 ERA, will bounce back from his latest start and six earned runs in 6.0 innings against the White Sox. Prior to that, Marquez allowed just three runs in four starts. Chase Burns, on the other hand, is not having the best of starts to his MLB career, and it’s clear that the rookie still has a lot to learn. I believe the Rox can get to him early on and be competitive in this one. Go with Colorado to cover the run line.