Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 9/7/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Guardians vs Rays Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 7th at the George M. Steinbrenner Field in the 4th game of this series, with the Guardians having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 71-71 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the AL East. The Rays have a 38-35 home record and are 61-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 home defeat by the Guardians, and have back-to-back losses. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 games and are playing the Cubs and the White Sox next.

The Rays have a .252 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 154 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .293 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI, with 103 and in home runs, with 41.

Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 10-5 record, 2.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

Cleveland Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians have a 71-70 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL Central. The Guardians have a 36-37 road record and are 66-70 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 road victory over the Rays, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games and are playing the Royals and the White Sox next.

The Guardians have a .224 batting average this season, .295 OBP and .368 Slugging percentage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Stephen Kwan leads the Guardians with 149 hits, while Jose Ramirez is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. He also leads the team both in RBI, with 73, and in home runs with 27.

Parker Messick (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Guardians, and he has a 1-0 record, 2.08 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 7, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 10-5      ERA: 2.74
• Home Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Guardians: 0-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won 12 of their last 13 day games following a home loss.
• The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight day games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against the Guardians following a home loss.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Parker Messick      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 2.08
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Rays: 1-0

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Rays’ last six games.
• The Rays have lost four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in five of the Rays’ last six games.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the last 14 games between the Guardians and Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the last 10 day games between the Guardians and Rays.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in three of the Guardians’ last four day games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three day games.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as favorites.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (39) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in 10 of his last 11 road appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Austin Hedges has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances.
• Jose Ramirez ranks T3rd in the league in Steals (37) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (178).
• The Rays are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1035).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.224).

Guardians vs Rays Prediction

The Guardians are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings against the Rays, and both teams are tied 3-3 wins in their last 6 meetings in Tampa. Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 meetings.

In this Guardians vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -150 home favorites. The Rays were on a seven-game winning streak, before losing their last two games against the Guardians. Tampa have their ace on the mound in Drew Rasmussen, who has been elite this season, and he goes up against Parker Messick, who has only two starts for the Guardians, and I do no trust him in this spot. I like the hosts to bounce back after two straight home defeats, having their best pitcher on the mound. Take the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline at home in this one.