Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 9/23/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 19, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians center fielder Steven Kwan (38) singles in the first inning against the Athletics at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox
Team Records
82-75
84-73
Spread
+1.5 -199
-1.5 163
Moneyline
+113
-137
Total
Over 6.5 (-119)
Under 6.5 (-101)
Where
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
When
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Time
07:00 PM EDT
TV
ESPN
The Cleveland Guardians and the Boston Red Sox meet Wednesday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Cleveland Guardians will send out Foster Griffin for the start here and Griffin is 15-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 151 strikeouts this season. Sonny Gray will start for the Red Sox and is 17-5 with a 2.82 ERA and 146 strikeouts this season.
Cleveland Guardians Recap
The Cleveland Guardians come into this game looking to add on to their 3-2 win over Boston last time out to sit at 82-75 this season. After this series, the Guardians will head on the road for a series against the Kansas City Royals.
Guardians Win 6 Straight
Entering Tuesday, Steven Kwan leads the Guardians with a team-high 146 hits while adding 21 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, and 31 RBIs so far this season. Chase DeLauter has added 138 hits with 28 doubles, 3 triples, 15 home runs, and 65 RBIs, while Brayan Rocchio leads Cleveland with a team-high 70 RBIs alongside 129 hits, 24 doubles, 2 triples, and 13 home runs on the year. Jose Ramirez has contributed 107 hits with 27 doubles, 12 home runs, and 51 RBIs, while Angel Martinez leads the Guardians with a team-high 17 home runs along with 93 hits, 22 doubles, 2 triples, and 57 RBIs. Daniel Schneemann has logged 53 hits with 11 doubles, 6 home runs, and 29 RBIs, while Rhys Hoskins has chipped in 47 hits with 13 doubles, 13 home runs, and 38 RBIs for Cleveland up to this point in the season.
Boston Red Sox Recap
The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to rebound from their loss at the hands of Cleveland last time out to sit at 82-75 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will take on the Cubs in a series at home.
Red Sox Lose 3 In A Row
Going into Tuesday, Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Red Sox with a team-high 151 hits while adding 32 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs, and 70 RBIs so far this season. Wilyer Abreu has added 144 hits with 36 doubles, 4 triples, 24 home runs, and 74 RBIs, while Willson Contreras leads Boston with a team-high 27 home runs and 81 RBIs alongside 123 hits, 21 doubles, and 3 triples on the year. Caleb Durbin has contributed 125 hits with 25 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs, and 64 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has logged 110 hits with 15 doubles, 5 triples, 20 home runs, and 69 RBIs for the Red Sox up to this point in the season.
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: September 23, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray Record this season: 17-5 ERA: 2.82
Home Record: 7-2
Last 5 against Guardians: 2-1
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 12 home games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 home games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Wednesday games.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Foster Griffin Record this season: 15-5 ERA: 3.67
Road Record: 8-3
Last 5 against Red Sox: –
Why the Cleveland Guardians will win
The Guardians have won each of their last six games.
The Red Sox have lost each of their last six Wednesday games as favorites.
The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Wednesday games as road underdogs against AL opponents.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games following a loss.
The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight Wednesday night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
The Guardians have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against the Red Sox.
Total Runs Facts
Nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Guardians’ last five night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Guardians’ last nine games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight home games.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
Sonny Gray has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Sonny Gray has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine Wednesday appearances in night games with his team as a favorite.
Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances.
Mickey Gasper has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
Sonny Gray ranks 2nd in the league for Wins (17) this season.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
Austin Hedges has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances at Fenway Park against opponents that held a winning record.
Foster Griffin ranks T4th in the league for Wins (15) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (281).
The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (150).
The Guardians rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.377).
The Guardians rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts this season (1488).
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction
I’m leaning towards Cleveland here. For as money as Sonny Gray has been this season, I think the Red Sox have their focuses shifted to the postseason. Cleveland doesn’t have that luxury as they need to keep winning to lock up the AL Central and winning in the month of September has just been Cleveland’s M.O. over the years. Give me Cleveland.
