| MATCHUP | Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 24-24 | 25-23 |
| Spread | +1.5 -175 | -1.5 144 |
| Moneyline | +119 | -143 |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-114) | Under 8.5 (-105) |
| Where | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | |
| When | Tuesday, May 19, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, May 19th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 25-23 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 13-12 home record and are coming off a 5-4 win against the Reds. They will face the Guardians and the Padres next.
The Phillies have a .234 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .327 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 36, adding a team-high 20 home runs.
Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 3-3 record, 5.07 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 24-24 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 11-13 away record and are coming off a 5-4 loss against the Phillies. They will face the Cardinals and the Mets next.
The Reds have a .226 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .391 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.82 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average, adding a team-high 11 home runs. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 32.
Chase Burns (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 5-1 record, 1.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: May 19, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo Record this season: 3-3 ERA: 5.07
- Home Record: 1-3
- Last 5 against Reds: 1-2
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last 10 road games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have won each of their last six games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in five of their last six games against National League opponents.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four night games against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in each of their last four games as favorites.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Burns Record this season: 5-1 ERA: 1.87
- Road Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Phillies: 0-0
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against the Reds following a home win.
- The underdogs have won three of the last four games between the Reds and Phillies.
- The Reds have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Phillies’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Reds’ last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of Chase Burns’ last six road appearances as a starter.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
- Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last nine games.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (20) this season.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL East opponents.
- Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 16 road games.
- Sal Stewart is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 10+ Stolen Bases this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (458).
- The Phillies rank 29th in the league for hits allowed this season (442).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (227).
- The Reds rank 28th in the league for batting average this season (.226).
Reds vs Phillies Prediction
The Phillies are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Reds and have won their last three meetings in Philadelphia.
In this Reds vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -140 home favorites. The Reds have the pitching advantage in this game as Chase Burns goes up against a struggling Jesus Luzardo, yet they are +120 underdogs. Burns has been even better on the road with a 1.45 road ERA, while Luzardo has been terrible at home with an 8.31 home ERA. I like the value with the road dog in this matchup, so take the Reds on the moneyline for plus money.