Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Prediction MLB Picks 7/4/24

In this article we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 4th at Yankee Stadium in New York. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:

• The Reds recent form and recent player performance 
• The Yankees recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Cincinnati
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving New York
• Recent betting trends in games played between Cincinnati and New York
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Cincinnati and New York

Reds are Looking for the Sweep 

The Cincinnati Reds are 41-45 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Cincinnati has won the first two games in this series by scores of 5-4 and 3-2. Prior to this series, the Reds split four games against the Cardinals, lost two out of three against the Pirates, and lost two out of three against the Red Sox. Cincinnati is 4-4 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the NL Central. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 366 runs with a .227 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .251 with 15 home runs and 39 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has allowed two runs or fewer in three of their last five games. 

Yankees Continue to Struggle 

The New York Yankees are 54-34 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. New York has dropped the first two games in this series and they have scored a total of six runs in the series. Prior to this series, the Yankees split four games against the Blue Jays, lost both against the Mets, and lost two out of three against the Braves. New York is 2-7 in their last nine games and they are second in the AL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .225 opponent batting average. The Yankees offense has scored 443 runs with a .249 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Aaron Judge is batting .318 with 32 home runs and 83 RBI’s for the Yankees this season. New York has allowed at least five runs in six of their last eight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Frankie Montas, who is 3-6 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 72.1 innings pitched this year. Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Marcus Stroman, who is 7-3 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 95.2 innings pitched this season. Stroman has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Reds

• The Reds have lost each of their last seven day games against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have won seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against AL East opponents.

Why the Reds will beat the Yankees

• The Yankees have lost each of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Yankees’ last seven games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Reds’ last 10 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last five road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last five home games against NL Central opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in 11 of his last 12 appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in three of the Yankees’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
• Gleyber Torres has scored at least one run in seven of the Yankees’ last eight games against the Reds.
• Marcus Stroman has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances at Yankee Stadium against opponents that held a losing record.
• Anthony Rizzo has recorded at least one RBI in 12 of his last 15 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Reds.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Yankees as favorites.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with the Yankees as favorites.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in eight of the Reds’ last 10 games.
• Jake Fraley has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jonathan India has scored at least one run in six of the Reds’ last seven games as underdogs against the Yankees.
• Frankie Montas has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents.
• TJ Friedl has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against AL East opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with the Reds as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Reds as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances with the Reds as road underdogs against AL opponents.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Prediction 

The Yankees come into this matchup trying to avoid being swept at home, but they will need Stroman to pitch much better than he has recently. New York is 24-16 at home this year, but they have struggled over the last two weeks. Cincinnati is 21-22 on the road and their offense has not been very good, but they have done a great job of slowing the Yankees down in the first two games. Cincinnati is starting Montas, who has not pitched well in his last three outings, and I think New York is going to get to him here. I don’t love either starting pitcher in this matchup, so my Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees prediction is for this game to go over the total. 

David Racey's Pick: Over 8.5