Cincinnati (50-47) vs New York (55-42)
July 18, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New York -1.5 — Over/Under: +8
In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 18, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds (50-47, 22-25 Away) concluded the first half of the season with four wins in five games, as they split a series with the Miami Marlins and defeated the Colorado Rockies. In the rubber match against Colorado, Cincy secured a 4-2 victory. The Reds were down 2-1 after the opening four innings, but then shut the Rox out for the rest of the game. Nick Martinez got the win after allowing two runs on five hits with three strikeouts and one walk in 5.1 innings.
This year, the Reds average 4.55 runs per game (13th in the MLB) on a .246/.317/.397 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Reds’ staff has a 3.91 ERA (17th) and 1.23 WHIP (10th). Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with a .284 batting average, 18 home runs, and 63 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Reds is Nick Lodolo, who is 6-6 in 19 starts this season, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 106.2 innings.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets (55-42, 33-14 Home) won three of their previous four series. After losing to the Baltimore Orioles, the Yankees bounced back with a series win over the Kansas City Royals, even though they lost Game 3, 3-2. The Mets failed to score in the opening eight innings, and although they had two runs in the 9th, Nick Loftin gave a W to the Royals. Clay Holmes pitched for 5.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on five hits with two strikeouts and one walk, while Sean Manaea took the loss.
This season, the Mets average 4.39 runs per game (14th in the MLB) on a .244/.323/.415 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 3.56 ERA (4th) and 1.30 WHIP (20th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .280 batting average, 21 home runs, and 77 RBI this season.
Sean Manaea will take the mound for the Mets on Friday. The 33-year-old left-hander has a 0-1 record in zero starts this year with a 2.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 3.1 innings.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Reds’ last four games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Mets’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last seven night games at Citi Field.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Reds’ last six games against National League opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
The Mets rank 5th in the league for walks this season (334).
The Mets rank 26th in the league for walks allowed this season (348).
The Reds rank 9th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.236).
The Reds rank 21st in the league for strikeouts this season (783).
Reds vs Mets Prediction
The teams have traded wins in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H encounters. Six of those duels went Under, which was the case in seven of Cincinnati’s last ten games. I expect another low-scoring affair here because of the pitching matchup. Nick Lodolo allowed more than three runs just once in his previous 12 starts, and he registered a shutout of the Marlins in his most recent start. Sean Manaea, on the other hand, is getting his first start of the season, and although I don’t think he will stay for more than four or five innings on the mound, I am sure he will manage to contain the Reds, who haven’t been prolific on offense lately. Manaea allowed a .173 BA in 52 at-bats against Cincinnati in his career. Go with Under.