Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 6/11/25 MLB Picks

Chris Ruffolo

6 months ago

Cleveland Guardians (34-32) vs Cincinnati Reds (35-33)

Game Info: Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 1:10 pm (Progressive Field)

The Line: Betting Odds: Cleveland Guardians -114 / Cincinnati Reds -106 — Over/Under: 8.5

The Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Guardians meet Wednesday in MLB action from Progressive Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Cincinnati Reds will send out Nick Lodolo for the start here, and Lodolo is 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 64 strikeouts this season. In his career, Lodolo is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 10 strikeouts against the Guardians. The Cleveland Guardians will send out Logan Allen for the start here, and Allen is 3-4 with a 4.42 ERA and 40 strikeouts this season. This will be Allen’s second career start against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to build on their 1-0 win over the Guardians last time out to sit at 35-33 on the year. After this series, the Reds will head on the road for an interleague series against the Detroit Tigers.

Reds Win Five In A Row

Elly De La Cruz has 66 hits with 12 home runs, 43 RBIs, 13 doubles, and 20 stolen bases, while TJ Friedl has 72 hits with 11 doubles, 6 home runs, and 24 RBIs with 9 stolen bases. Gavin Lux has added 56 hits with a team-high 14 doubles and 27 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has 4 home runs and 21 RBIs, and Matt McLain has added 7 homers, 22 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases as well on the year. Jose Trevino’s also chipped in 14 doubles this season.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

The Reds have won each of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The Guardians have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Reds’ last six games.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

Will Benson has hit at least one home run in three of the Reds’ last five games against the Guardians.
Nick Lodolo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances.
TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 road appearances against AL Central opponents.
Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against the Guardians.
Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in each of his last nine road appearances against AL Central opponents.
Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in six of his last seven appearances with the Reds as underdogs against AL opponents.
TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in each of the Reds’ last 11 road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Elly De La Cruz ranks 6th in the league in Steals (20) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Recap

The Cleveland Guardians come into this game looking to bounce back from their 1-0 loss at the hands of the Reds on Tuesday to sit at 34-32 on the year. After this series, the Guardians will head on the road for a series against the Seattle Mariners.

Guardians Drop 6 Of Their Last 8

Steven Kwan has 76 hits as part of a .305 batting average and 5 home runs, 14 doubles, and 22 RBIs. Kyle Manzardo has 39 hits with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 11 home runs, and 29 RBIs as well this year. Gabriel Arias has 15 doubles but also 67 strikeouts, and Manzardo has 59 strikeouts so far this season. Arias has also added 4 home runs and 25 RBIs, and Jose Ramirez has chipped in 12 home runs and 32 RBIs. Carlos Santana has also added 54 hits with 7 home runs and 30 RBIs this season.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

The Reds have lost each of their last four day games against American League opponents following a road win.
The Guardians have won eight of their last 10 day games at Progressive Field following a loss.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against American League opponents following a road win.
The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents following a loss.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last four games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
Carlos Santana has recorded at least one RBI in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Guardians as home favorites against the Reds.
Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in each of the Guardians’ last six games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
Jose Ramirez has recorded a Single in each of the Guardians’ last seven home games.
Nolan Jones has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
Jose Ramirez ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.332) this season.

Total Runs Facts

Nine of the last 10 games between the Reds and Guardians have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Reds’ last six games as underdogs against the Guardians have gone UNDER the total runs line.