Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction 5/1/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Apr 27, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami (5) hits a three-run home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the seventh inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Chicago White Sox
San Diego Padres
Team Records
14-17
19-11
Spread
+1.5 -171
-1.5 141
Moneyline
+129
-156
Total
Over 8.5 (-105)
Under 8.5 (-115)
Where
Petco Park, San Diego, California
When
Friday, May 1, 2026
Time
09:40 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Chicago White Sox and the San Diego Padres meet Friday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Chicago White Sox will send out Noah Schultz for the start here and Schultz is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 18 strikeouts this season. This will be Schultz’s first career start against the Padres. German Marquez will start for the Padres here and Marquez is 3-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 17 strikeouts this season. In his career, Marquez is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 13 strikeouts against the White Sox.
Chicago White Sox Recap
The Chicago White Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 3-2 win over the Angels last time out to improve to 14-17 this season. After this series, the White Sox will head on the road for a series against the Angels.
White Sox Win 7 Of Last 10
Munetaka Murakami has 26 hits with 12 home runs and 23 RBIs while Miguel Vargas has 23 hits with 4 doubles, a triple, 6 home runs and 15 RBIs and Colson Montgomery has 26 hits with 5 doubles, 8 home runs and 21 RBIs. Luisangel Acuna has 13 hits and Tristan Peters has 18 hits with a double so far this season. Chase Meidroth also has 28 hits with 6 doubles, a home run and 3 RBIs this year.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to bounce back from their 5-4 loss at the hands of the White Sox last time out to sit at 19-11 this season. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a series against the San Francisco Giants.
Padres Drop Back-To-Back Games
Jackson Merrill has 23 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 15 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 27 hits with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 28 hits with 4 doubles and 13 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 30 hits with 2 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 22 hits with 4 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs as well on the year.
The Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: May 1, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: German Marquez Record this season: 3-1 ERA: 4.38
Home Record: 1-1
Last 5 against White Sox: 1-2
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The Padres have won each of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
The White Sox have lost 16 of their last 18 night games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
The White Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents following a home win.
The Padres have covered the run line in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
The Padres have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against opponents that held a losing record.
The Padres have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven home games against opponents that held a losing record.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Noah Schultz Record this season: 1-1 ERA: 3.52
Road Record: 1-0
Last 5 against Padres: –
Why the Chicago White Sox will win
The Padres have lost each of their last seven Friday night games as favorites against American League opponents.
The White Sox have won five of their last six games as underdogs.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 Friday games against American League opponents.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the White Sox’s last seven games.
The White Sox have won the first inning in each of their last four night games against NL West opponents.
The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games.
The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Padres’ last five games as home favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the White Sox’s last four road games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last 11 games against American League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the White Sox’s last seven games as road underdogs against NL West opponents.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
German Marquez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
German Marquez has recorded four or more strikeouts in 36 of his last 43 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 12 home games against opponents that held a losing record.
Gavin Sheets has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Padres as favorites.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T9th in the league in Steals (8) this season.
Chicago White Sox Player Prop Facts
Miguel Vargas has hit a home run in three of the White Sox’s last four road games.
Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
Munetaka Murakami ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (12) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Padres rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (25).
The Padres rank 27th in the league for hits this season (234).
The White Sox rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (33).
The White Sox rank 29th in the league for hits this season (230).
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres Prediction
I’m on the White Sox here. I get the case to be made for either side in this game but looking at this series as a whole, it feels like this is the best shot that the White Sox have at grabbing a win in this series as Marquez is the weak link and the Padres have a significant bullpen advantage so the White Sox have to strike early but I think they can against Marquez. All in all the value is on the White Sox here so give me Chicago.
