Cleveland Guardians (3-6) vs Chicago White Sox (2-7)
Game Info: Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 4:10 pm (Progressive Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: Cleveland Guardians -205 / Chicago White Sox +170 — Over/Under: 7
The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians meet on Tuesday in MLB action from Progressive Field. This will be the first installment in a three-game series this week. Here’s a White Sox vs Guardians prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best White Sox vs Guardians pick. We will examine:
The Chicago White Sox’s recent form and player performance
The Cleveland Guardians’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Chicago White Sox
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cleveland Guardians
Recent betting trends in games played between the White Sox and Guardians
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the White Sox vs Guardians game
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
The White Sox won their first matchup of the season versus the Los Angeles Angels, then dropped the next pair. In their second series against the Minnesota Twins, Chicago won the opener, then fell in the next two games. The White Sox lost Friday’s game versus the Detroit Tigers 7-4 and also fell in game two 7-2. In the finale, Chicago had a 2-0 lead in the first inning and a 3-1 advantage in the bottom of the ninth but couldn’t hold it on a 4-3 loss. Andrew Vaughn and Matt Thaiss (run) provided one RBI each, and starting pitcher Martin Perez lasted 6.1 innings with one earned run.
In the starting pitcher slot for Tuesday, the Sox are going with Shane Smith. In his lone start this year (and the first start of his MLB career), Smith went 5.2 innings with two earned runs. That gives him a 3.18 ERA in the very early going so far.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Over on the Guardians’ side, they were able to take a series win over the Kansas City Royals in their first matchup of the season, bagging wins 7-4 and 6-2. Cleveland was then swept by the San Diego Padres 7-2, 7-0, and 5-2 before a weekend series opener win versus the Los Angeles Angels 8-6. The Guardians would fall 10-4 on Saturday, and then in the Sunday rubber match finale, Cleveland posted just three hits in a 6-2 loss. Kyle Manzardo had one of the two RBI with a solo home run, and starter Luis Ortiz managed 6.0 innings with three earned runs.
Ben Lively will take the mound for the starting pitcher role on Tuesday. Lively has two starts under his belt so far this year, going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA over 9.1 innings in that time. In his career, Lively is 21-28 with a 4.59 ERA in 76 games (63 starts).
Why the Cleveland Guardians will win
- The Guardians have won each of their last 10 games against the White Sox at Progressive Field following a road loss.
- The White Sox have lost 23 of their last 26 games against AL Central opponents.
- The Guardians have covered the run line each of their last six games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The White Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.
- The White Sox have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The White Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Chicago White Sox will win
- The White Sox have won four of their last five games at Progressive Field against teams that held a losing record.
- The Guardians have lost six of their last seven day games following a road loss.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games at Progressive Field against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The road team has covered the run line in six of the last seven games between the White Sox and Guardians.
- The White Sox have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Progressive Field against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Four of the Guardians’ last five games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Three of the White Sox’s last four road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the White Sox’s last six day games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last four games against AL Central opponents.
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction
I’ll lean toward Cleveland. That said, Lively needs to have a good outing here, so I’m probably staying away. In his first two starts, things haven’t gone all that well. Lively opened with 5.0 innings and three earned versus the Royals in a no-decision, then took a loss versus the Padres on 4.1 innings and four earned runs from seven hits and a pair of walks. As for Smith, he didn’t pitch too badly in his debut versus the Twins on April Fool’s Day, bagging 5.2 innings with two earned on two hits and four walks in a no-decision.
The Guardians had a pretty flat offensive day in their Sunday finale versus the Angels, and it resulted in a four-run loss. Ortiz wasn’t too bad overall (6.0 innings; three earned), but it hardly mattered with just three team hits. Cleveland has been a mixed bag this year when it comes to offense, and they’ve posted two or fewer runs in four of the last six games (a 1-5 run). The Guardians really need a shot in the arm at the plate, but if they can snag a few runs early here, they should be in good shape. I’m not touching this one, though.