New York Mets (24-14) vs Chicago Cubs (22-16)
Game Info: Friday, May 9, 2025 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: New York Mets -155 / Chicago Cubs +130 — Over/Under: 8
The Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets meet Friday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Chicago Cubs will send out Jameson Taillon for the start here, and Taillon is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Mets, Taillon is 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 28 strikeouts. The Mets will start Clay Holmes here, and Holmes is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 39 strikeouts this season. This will be Holmes’ first career start against the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs Recap
The Chicago Cubs come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at the hands of the San Francisco Giants last time out to fall to 22-16 on the year. After this series, the Cubs will head home for a series against the Miami Marlins.
Cubs Drop Back-To-Back Games
Ian Happ has a team-high 43 hits with 9 doubles, 3 home runs, and 19 RBIs. Kyle Tucker has 42 hits, including 8 doubles, 9 home runs, and 31 RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki also has 35 hits with 6 doubles and 9 home runs and 31 RBIs of his own. Miguel Amaya added 6 doubles and 16 RBIs, and Pete Crow-Armstrong has also contributed 11 doubles this season. Dansby Swanson has added 7 home runs and 20 RBIs, while he also has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Cubs with 45 strikeouts so far this season. Crow-Armstrong also has a team-high 12 stolen bases, while Nico Hoerner has 7 stolen bases this season. Tucker’s also added 10 stolen bases, while Michael Busch has also chipped in 6 home runs and 22 RBIs this season.
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Mets have lost each of their last seven games against the Cubs following a win.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against the Cubs following a win.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one Double in each of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents.
- Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games as underdogs.
- Dansby Swanson has recorded an RBI in each of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents.
- Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in each of the Cubs’ last six night games.
- Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one Single in nine of his 10 previous appearances with the Cubs as underdogs against the Mets.
- Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.
- Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last nine road games.
- Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks 5th in the league in Steals (12) this season.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to build off their 7-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks last time out to improve to 24-14 on the year. After this series, the Mets will square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Mets Looking For Consistency
Pete Alonso has a team-high 45 hits with 13 doubles, 9 home runs, 34 RBIs, and a .328 batting average, while Juan Soto has 36 hits with 9 doubles, 7 home runs, and 17 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 43 hits with 4 stolen bases along with 7 doubles, 7 home runs, and 24 RBIs, while Mark Vientos has 4 home runs, 15 RBIs, but has a team-high 30 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 29 hits with 6 doubles and 7 home runs, and 23 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 8 doubles, and Luisangel Acuna has 9 stolen bases as well this season.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have lost six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mets have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against teams that held a winning record.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as home favorites.
- Tyrone Taylor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last seven night games.
- Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets’ last four night games.
- Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
- Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday appearances.
- Pete Alonso ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.635) this season.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mets’ last four games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Prediction
I’m on the Cubs here. I just think that these two teams are a lot more similar than this line would suggest, and Taillon has had some decent numbers against the Mets in his career, including a pair of strong starts against New York last season. Clay Holmes has been on quite the run, but I think the Cubs upend that and get the win on the road to draw first blood here. Give me Chicago in this one.