| MATCHUP | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 53-42 | 43-51 |
| Spread | -1.5 119 | +1.5 -144 |
| Moneyline | -131 | +109 |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-102) | Under 9.5 (-118) |
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio | |
| When | Sunday, July 12, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 43-51 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 22-27 home record and are coming off a 3-5 home loss against the Cubs. They will face the Rockies and the Mariners next.
The Cincinnati Reds have a .229 batting average this season, .310 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.48 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .275 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 65, adding a team-high 19 home runs.
Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, and he has a 5-5 record, 3.92 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs have a 53-42 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 26-23 away record and are coming off a 5-3 road win against the Reds. They will face the Twins and the Tigers next.
The Chicago Cubs have a .244 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .410 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.34 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .290 batting average. He also adds a team-high 21 home runs, while Dansby Swanson leads the team in RBI with 58.
Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, and he has a 4-1 record, 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
The Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: July 12, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott Record this season: 5-5 ERA: 3.92
- Home Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Cubs: 2-1
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Reds have won 19 of their last 20 day games following a home loss.
- The Cubs have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against the Reds following a road win.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games following a home loss.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against the Reds following a road win.
- The Reds have won the first inning in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.
- The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games at Great American Ball Park.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd Record this season: 4-1 ERA: 4.31
- Road Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Reds: 1-3
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have lost seven of their last eight day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against the Reds.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Reds’ last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Reds’ last nine home games against National League opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in 12 of the Cubs’ last 13 road games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four games.
- Andrew Abbott has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games.
- Andrew Abbott has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against NL opponents.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Reds as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last three day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- Matthew Boyd has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last eight day games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank 28th in the league for hits this season (722).
- The Reds rank 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (892).
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (412).
- The Cubs rank 29th in the league for home runs allowed this season (147).
Cubs vs Reds Prediction
The Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Reds but are 1-5 in their last 6 visits in Cincinnati.
In this Cubs vs Reds Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -125 road favorites. I don’t like either pitcher in this matchup, as Abbott has given up 3+ runs in five of his last eight starts and has been bad at home with a 4.75 ERA. On the flip side, Boyd had been up and down for the Cubs and sits on a 5.19 road ERA. The Cubs have the 5th-best offense in baseball and the Reds have a bottom-6 bullpen, so I expect runs in this game. Take the over 9.5 in this one.