| MATCHUP | Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 84-70 | 93-60 |
| Spread | +1.5 -195 | -1.5 160 |
| Moneyline | +113 | -136 |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115) |
| Where | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida | |
| When | Saturday, September 19, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 93-60 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 53-26 home record and are coming off a 2-4 home loss against the Red Sox. They will face the Yankees and the Phillies next.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a .260 batting average this season, .329 OBP and .405 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the team’s best hitter with a .308 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI with 97, adding a team-high 41 home runs.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 9-11 record, 4.67 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Boston Red Sox Preview
The Boston Red Sox have a 84-70 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 46-33 away record and are coming off a 4-2 road win against the Rays. They will face the Guardians and the Cubs next.
The Boston Red Sox have a .246 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .401 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 81, adding a team-high 27 home runs.
Payton Tolle (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 9-6 record, 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 19, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 9-11 ERA: 4.67
- Home Record: 5-5
- Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-2
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The home team has won seven of the Rays’ last eight games.
- The Red Sox have lost 17 of their last 21 games at Tropicana Field against teams that held a winning record.
- The Rays have covered the run line in six of their last seven games following a loss.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Tropicana Field.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against AL opponents.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven games at Tropicana Field.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle Record this season: 9-6 ERA: 3.02
- Road Record: 6-3
- Last 5 against Rays: 0-2
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The underdogs have won nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 games at Tropicana Field.
- The Rays have lost each of their last five games as favorites against the Red Sox following a loss.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 games at Tropicana Field.
- The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against the Rays.
- The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Rays’ last eight day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the last eight day games between the Red Sox and Rays.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the Red Sox’s last seven day games at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Cedric Mullins has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Red Sox.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded five or more strikeouts in 15 of his last 19 home appearances against AL opponents.
- Nick Fortes has recorded at least one hit in each of his 10 previous home appearances against the Red Sox.
- Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (45) this season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Jarren Duran has recorded a hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Red Sox as road underdogs against the Rays.
- Payton Tolle has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six road appearances.
- Payton Tolle has recorded a win in each of his last four road appearances against AL opponents.
- Jahmai Jones has hit a home run in two of the Red Sox’s last three games against the Rays.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.260).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1066).
- The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (148).
- The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.60).
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction
The Red Sox have won their last five meetings against the Rays but are 1-3 in their last 4 visits in Tampa.
In this Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -135 home favorites. I like the pitching in this matchup, as both starters have been in excellent form and they have excellent home aways splits. Tolle has a 2.50 road ERA and Peralta a 3.66 home ERA, and he has been in excellent form, having given up just two total runs across his last four starts. Both bullpen have also been in excellent form, the opening game of this series had six total runs and both teams are a combined 15-5 to the under in their last 20 games. Take the under 7.5.