Tampa Bay (50-45) vs Boston (51-45)
July 12, 2025 at 04:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Boston -185 — Over/Under: +8
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox meet Saturday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Shane Baz for the start here and Baz is 8-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 104 strikeouts this season. In his career, Baz is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 29 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Garrett Crochet will get the start here for the Red Sox and is 9-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 151 strikeouts this season. This will be Crochet’s first career start against the Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays Recap
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to bounce back from a 5-4 loss at the hands of the Red Sox on Friday to sit at 50-45 on the year. After this series, the Rays will have the all-star break before taking on the Baltimore Orioles at home.
Rays Lose 8 Of Their Last 11
Jonathan Aranda has 99 hits with 19 doubles, 11 home runs and 49 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has 86 hits with 19 homers and 50 RBIs as well while Junior Caminero has 87 hits with 19 doubles, a team-high 22 home runs and 58 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has 101 hits with 18 doubles, 14 homers and 53 RBIs and Kameron Misner has 42 hits with 9 doubles, 5 homers and 22 RBIs as well while Christopher Morel has 62 strikeouts while Lowe has 85 strikeouts and Misner has 69 K’s as well this season. Jose Caballero has 31 stolen bases while Taylor Walls has 10 stolen bases as well this season.
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
The Rays have won each of their last eight day games against AL East opponents following a loss.
The Red Sox have lost each of their last five Saturday games as favorites against AL East opponents.
The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 13 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as home favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances.
Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
Jose Caballero ranks 1st in the league in Steals (31) this season.
Boston Red Sox Recap
The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Rays on Friday to climb to 51-45 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will square off against the Cubs at Wrigley Field after the all-star break.
Red Sox Win 8 Straight
Alex Bregman has 59 hits including 17 doubles along with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 88 hits with 15 home runs, 57 RBIs and 14 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 101 hits with 24 doubles, 10 triples, 8 home runs, 50 RBIs and a team-high 15 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell’s added 51 hits with 10 doubles, 6 homers and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 18 home runs with 52 RBIs and 5 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 12 homers, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 41 RBIs and 11 stolen bases this season.
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games.
The Rays have lost each of their last four games at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against the Rays following a win.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Red Sox following a loss.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games as home favorites against AL opponents.
Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances after playing the previous day.
Total Runs Facts
Eight of the Rays’ last 10 day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
Four of the Red Sox’s last five games as favorites against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction
I’m backing the Red Sox here. Baz has been a solid option for the Rays, but Tampa Bay has really cooled off against left-handed pitching as of late and Crochet is one of the best options in this Boston rotation. Boston’s just rolling right now and aren’t a team I’m looking to step in front of at the moment. Give me the Red Sox.