Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/10/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 10, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox (65-53, 26-31 Away) defeated the Twins, swept the Astros, and beat the Royals prior to this series against the Padres. Boston opened it with a comfortable 10-2 win, but fell short in Game 2, losing 5-4 in extra innings. Three different batters drove in a run apiece, while Lucas Giolito pitched for 4.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing four runs on five hits with one strikeout and six walks. Garrett Whitlock took the loss.

This year, the Red Sox average 4.97 runs per game (5th in the MLB) on a .254/.323/.430 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Red Sox’s staff has a 3.72 ERA (7th) and 1.29 WHIP (19th). Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with a .256 batting average, 18 home runs, and 73 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox is Brayan Bello, who is 8-5 in 19 starts this season, with a 3.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 116.0 innings.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres (65-52, 37-20 Home) won ten of the last 13 games, as they swept the Mets, defeated the Cardinals, and beat the Diamondbacks in the previous three series. After allowing ten runs in a 10-2 loss to the Red Sox in Game 1 (the most allowed in the second half of the season), the Padres answered with a 5-4 extra-inning victory. Xander Bogaerts and Ramon Laureano led the offense with two RBI apiece, while Michael King pitched for 2.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on four hits with one strikeout and two walks. Jason Adam was credited with the win.

This season, the Padres average 4.14 runs per game (24th in the MLB) on a .251/.320/.382 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.58 ERA (3rd) and 1.20 WHIP (3rd). Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .297 batting average, 20 home runs, and 72 RBI this season.

Dylan Cease will take the mound for the Padres on Sunday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 4-10 record in 23 starts this year with a 4.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 123.1 innings.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Padres

• The Red Sox have won six of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 home games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Red Sox’s last 12 games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four day games against American League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.228).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (817).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for runs scored this season (591).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for RBIs this season (566).

Red Sox vs Padres Prediction

The teams have traded victories in the past few years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H encounters. Boston was better in two of the last three, and I am backing the Red Sox to win again, as I like Brayan Bello better than Dylan Cease. Bello allowed more than three runs just once this season, while he played very well in July, posting a 2.79 ERA. Dylan Cease, on the other hand, did well in his latest start against the Cardinals, keeping the opponents off the scoreboard across 5.0 innings, but he did struggle in July, posting a 5.67 ERA. Both teams are in good form, and it’s going to be a tight affair, but I am leaning toward the Red Sox.