Boston (89-73) vs New York (94-68)
October 1, 2025 at 06:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New York -1.5 — Over/Under: +7.5
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet Wednesday in Wild Card Game 2 MLB action at Yankee Stadium. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction. This article will include a Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Pick.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox look to make their first ALDS since the 2021 season. The Boston Red Sox are batting .235 on the season, have a .350 OBP, and a .324 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 1.00 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. Alex Bregman leads the Boston Red Sox with 2 hits and 1 RBI while Trevor Story and Nate Eaton have combined for 3 hits.
Brayan Bello gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA and 124 strikeouts this season. Bello will make his career postseason debut tonight. Bello is 5-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 53 strikeouts in his career against the New York Yankees.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The New York Yankees need a win to force a game 3 on Thursday. The New York Yankees are batting .212 on the season, have a .212 OBP, and a .303 slugging percentage. The New York Yankees pitching staff has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. Anthony Volpe leads the New York Yankees with 2 hits and 1 RBI while Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge have combined for 4 hits.
Carlos Rodon gets the ball for the New York Yankees, and he is 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 203 strikeouts this season. Rodon is 1-3 with a 6.64 ERA and 28 strikeouts in his postseason career. Rodon is 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA and 75 strikeouts in his career against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: October 1, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon Record this season: 18-9 ERA: 3.09
- Home Record: 10-4
- Last 5 against Red Sox: 3-2
Why the New York Yankees will win
- The Yankees have won each of their last 10 Wednesday night games against the Red Sox.
- The Red Sox have lost each of their last six Wednesday night games at Yankee Stadium.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Wednesday night games against the Red Sox.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three playoff games.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games at Yankee Stadium against American League opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Brayan Bello Record this season: 11-9 ERA: 3.35
- Road Record: 3-4
- Last 5 against Yankees: 3-1
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last seven playoff games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Yankees have lost each of their last three playoff games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven road playoff games after playing the previous day.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six playoff games against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Yankees’ last eight games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Red Sox’s last five games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight Wednesday night games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four night games between the Red Sox and Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
- Aaron Judge has hit at least one home run in three of the Yankees’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances at Yankee Stadium.
- Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Wednesday night appearances.
- Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.688) this season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Connor Wong has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances against the Yankees.
- Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games against AL East opponents.
- Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Yankees rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (820).
- The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.455).
- The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.254).
- The Red Sox are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction
The Yankees are getting the benefit of the doubt because they’re the Yankees. Rodon also has playoff experience that Bello does not. However, the Red Sox have now won 8 of the last 11 games against the Yankees, and I trust Alex Cora over Aaron Boone in pressure situations. Also, while Rodon has pitched in the postseason, he’s allowed 25 hits and 15 runs in 20.1 innings. In last year’s postseason, Rodon allowed 21 hits and 11 runs in 17.2 innings. I just don’t trust Rodon in big moments. Also, the Red Sox just keep fining ways to beat the Yankees, and wins like last night only add to the confidence. Give me the Red Sox and the plus money for a second straight night.