| MATCHUP | Boston Red Sox | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 73-59 | 67-66 |
| Spread | -1.5 109 | +1.5 -131 |
| Moneyline | -153 | +142 |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-102) |
| Where | loanDepot park, Miami, Florida | |
| When | Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, August 26th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 67-66 record this season and sit in third place in the NL East. They have a 41-27 home record and are coming off a 3-7 home loss against the Red Sox. They will face the Nationals and the Royals next.
The Miami Marlins have a .249 batting average this season, .326 OBP, and .400 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the Marlins’ best hitter with a .306 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 59. Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 20 home runs.
Ryan Gusto (RHP) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, holding a 0-3 record, 4.37 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP.
Boston Red Sox Preview
The Boston Red Sox have a 73-59 record this season and sit in third place in the AL East. They have a 39-27 road record and are coming off a 3-7 road loss against the Marlins. They will face the Yankees and the Mariners next.
The Boston Red Sox have a .251 batting average this season, .324 OBP, and .407 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.48 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the Red Sox’ best hitter with a .288 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 78, also adding a team-high 26 home runs.
Sonny Gray (RHP) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, holding a 16-3 record, 2.79 ERA, and 1.16 WHIP.
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: August 26, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Gusto Record this season: 0-3 ERA: 4.37
- Home Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Red Sox: –
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won three of their last four games as home underdogs after going to extra innings.
- The Red Sox have lost six of their last nine games as favorites against NL opponents following a road win.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as road favorites following an extra innings win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a home loss.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 13 road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray Record this season: 16-3 ERA: 2.79
- Road Record: 9-2
- Last 5 against Marlins: 2-1
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last 18 night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line each of their last 10 road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against AL opponents.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against AL opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Marlins’ last six games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Red Sox’s last five games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in 11 of the Marlins’ last 12 games as underdogs.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in six of Sonny Gray’s last seven appearances as a starter.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Heriberto Hernandez has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs.
- Ryan Gusto has recorded four or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 12 home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Otto Lopez ranks 2nd in the league in Hits (158) this season.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Mickey Gasper has hit at least one home run in four of the Red Sox’s last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Sonny Gray has recorded a win in each of his last seven appearances against NL opponents.
- Sonny Gray has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against NL opponents.
- Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine road games against NL opponents.
- Sonny Gray ranks T1st in the league for Wins (16) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (28).
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (134).
- The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for doubles this season (241).
- The Red Sox rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (127).
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction
The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings against the Marlins and have won their last five visits in Miami.
In this Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -155 road favorites. I like the Red Sox in this one with the red-hot Sonny Gray on the mound, who has been elite this season and has a 9-2 record and 2.82 ERA on the road. On the flip side, Gusto sits on a 4.56 home ERA and the Marlins cannot offer him run support, as they average just 3.7 runs per game in their last 5. The Red Sox have the best bullpen in baseball and I expect them to take care of business in this one.