Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction 7/27/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 27th at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 48-58 this season after they lost two out of three against the Red Sox by scores of 4-6, 6-0, and 1-6. In game three, Toronto allowed the first six runs, but they scored in the ninth to avoid the shutout. The Blue Jays recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Gimenez, who went 3-4 with one RBI. Gausman allowed five hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Fisher allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Toronto lost three out of four against the Rays and two out of three against the White Sox. 

This season, Toronto has a 4.16 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while they have scored 416 runs with a .243 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Kazuma Okamoto has led the Blue Jays with 23 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Andres Gimenez has added seven home runs and 40 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Max Scherzer, who is 1-4 with a 10.23 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP over 22.0 innings pitched this season. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 54-52 this year after they won two out of three against the Diamondbacks by scores of 2-3, 5-3, and 10-7. In game three, Washington trailed 4-2 in the fifth inning, but they scored the next seven runs to pull away with the win. The Nationals recorded 15 hits in the game and they were led by Abrams, who went 3-5 with two home runs and three RBIs. Mikolas allowed four hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Cornelio picked up the win and Beeter got the save. Prior to that series, Washington won two out of three against the Rockies and two out of three against the Athletics. 

This season, Washington has a 4.78 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and a .260 opponent batting average, while they have scored 584 runs with a .255 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. CJ Abrams has led the Nationals with 27 home runs and 82 RBIs, while James Wood has added 30 home runs and 72 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Andrew Alvarez, who is 2-3 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 53.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight night games after playing the previous day.
• The home team has won six of the last seven games between the Blue Jays and Nationals.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games following a loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last four games.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against American League opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Monday night games as home favorites.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 12 games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last nine home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight games at Nationals Park against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Blue Jays’ last seven games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seventeen of the Nationals’ last 20 night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Blue Jays’ last four games against National League opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Nationals’ last four home games against AL East opponents.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• James Wood has hit a home run in five of the Nationals’ last six home games against AL opponents.
• CJ Abrams has recorded two or more hits in each of the Nationals’ last five games.
• Andrew Alvarez has recorded four or more strikeouts in seven of his eight previous appearances at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• CJ Abrams ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.573) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit at least one home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last two games as underdogs against the Nationals.
• Max Scherzer has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 34 road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Nathan Lukes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Max Scherzer has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances at Nationals Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (156).
• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (156).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).

Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction 

Washington comes into this matchup after winning a series against the Diamondbacks and they are still the highest scoring team in the MLB. The Nationals are 22-32 at home this year, while the Blue Jays are 22-28 on the road. Toronto has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they allowed six runs to Boston in games one and three over the weekend. The Blue Jays are starting Scherzer, who has been terrible this year and is coming off of the IL. The Nationals are going with Alvarez, who has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 12.0 innings. Take the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 10