Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 8/12/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Aug 11, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins second baseman Kody Clemens (2) fields a ground ball against the Baltimore Orioles in the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins
Team Records
58-62
59-62
Spread
-1.5 151
+1.5 -184
Moneyline
-102
-105
Total
Over 9 (-102)
Under 9 (-119)
Where
Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
When
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Time
01:40 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Baltimore Orioles and the Minnesota Twins meet Wednesday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Baltimore Orioles will send out Shane Baz for the start here and Baz is 4-11 with a 3.76 ERA and 120 strikeouts this season. Zebby Matthews will start here for Minnesota and is 5-8 with a 5.23 ERA and 73 strikeouts this season.
Baltimore Orioles Recap
The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their 5-2 win over the Twins on Tuesday to improve to 58-62 this season. After this series, the Orioles will head on the road for a series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Orioles Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight
Going into Tuesday, Gunnar Henderson has 101 hits with 19 doubles, 18 home runs and 47 RBIs and Pete Alonso has 112 hits with 22 doubles, 25 home runs and 75 RBIs. Jeremiah Jackson has 53 hits with 10 doubles, 7 home runs and 39 RBIs as well on the year. Samuel Basallo has 68 hits with 9 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs.
Minnesota Twins Recap
The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of Baltimore on Tuesday to sit at 59-62 on the year. After this series, the Twins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a series at home.
Twins Drop 3 Of Last 4
Entering Tuesday, Byron Buxton has 87 hits with 16 doubles, a triple, 25 home runs and 45 RBIs while Josh Bell’s added 107 hits with 24 doubles, 16 home runs and 71 RBIs. Luke Keaschall has 98 hits with 16 doubles, 6 homers and 34 RBIs. Brooks Lee has 102 hits with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 17 home runs and 61 RBIs and Victor Caratini has 37 RBIs while Kody Clemens has 89 hits with 20 doubles, 5 triples, 20 home runs and 55 RBIs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins Betting Trends: August 12, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Zebby Matthews Record this season: 5-8 ERA: 5.23
Home Record: 2-4
Last 5 against Orioles: 0-1
Why the Minnesota Twins will win
The Orioles have lost 12 of their last 13 games at Target Field against teams that held a losing record.
The Twins have won eight of their last nine day games at Target Field following a loss.
The Twins have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games after playing the previous day.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Target Field.
The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against AL East opponents.
The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Twins have won the first inning in each of their last six day games against AL East opponents.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz Record this season: 4-11 ERA: 3.76
Road Record: 1-7
Last 5 against Twins: 0-1
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
The Twins have lost each of their last six games as home favorites against the Orioles following a home loss.
The Orioles have won each of their last six day games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against the Orioles following a home loss.
The underdogs have covered the run line in 13 of the Twins’ last 14 games.
The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games.
The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven day games against the Twins at Target Field.
The Twins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games.
Total Runs Facts
Eight of the Orioles’ last nine road games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Ten of the Twins’ last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Twins’ last six day games against AL East opponents.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of Shane Baz’s last six appearances as a starter.
Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts
Trevor Larnach has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
Royce Lewis has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins’ last 13 games against AL opponents.
Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts
Pete Alonso has hit at least one home run in two of the Orioles’ last three games.
Shane Baz has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against AL opponents.
Leody Taveras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against the Twins.
Pete Alonso ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (26) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Twins rank 26th in the league for ERA this season (4.59).
The Twins rank 26th in the league for runs allowed this season (598).
The Orioles rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (463).
The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1103).
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction
I’m on the Orioles in this one. I just don’t trust Zebby Matthews’ game right now and I think Baltimore can get to him and on the other side, Shane Baz has quietly been pitching some of the most consistent ball for Baltimore, it’s simply a matter of if the bullpen can do its job late and if the offense can back him up. I think this is a spot where both can occur and I look for Baltimore to get it done here. Give me the O’s.
