Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Prediction 5/7/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
May 4, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) singles during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Baltimore Orioles
Miami Marlins
Team Records
17-20
16-21
Spread
-1.5 159
+1.5 -193
Moneyline
+104
-126
Total
Over 8.5 (-112)
Under 8.5 (-108)
Where
loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
When
Thursday, May 7, 2026
Time
06:40 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Baltimore Orioles and the Miami Marlins meet Thursday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Baltimore Orioles will send out Cade Povich for the start here and Povich is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 11 strikeouts this season. This will be Povich’s first career start against the Marlins. Max Meyer will start for the Marlins here and is 2-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 40 strikeouts this season. This will be Meyer’s first career start against the Orioles.
Baltimore Orioles Recap
The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their 7-4 win over Miami from Wednesday’s matchup to improve to 17-20 this season. After this series, the Orioles will head home for a series against the Athletics.
O’s Win Back-To-Back Games
Entering Wednesday, Taylor Ward has 37 hits with 13 doubles and 12 RBIs while Gunnar Henderson has 31 hits with 6 doubles, 9 home runs and 19 RBIs and Pete Alonso has 30 hits with 10 doubles, 6 home runs and 17 RBIs. Adley Rutschman has 23 hits with 6 doubles, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs. Jeremiah Jackson has 29 hits with 3 doubles, 6 home runs and 24 RBIs while Dylan Beavers also has 19 hits with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 10 RBIs.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to shake off their loss at the hands of the Orioles on Wednesday to fall to 16-21 this season. After this series, the Marlins will host the Nationals in a series at home.
Marlins Lose 4 In A Row
Going into Wednesday, Xavier Edwards has 44 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 47 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers and 16 RBIs. Agustin Ramirez has 26 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 34 hits with 3 doubles, 8 home runs and 32 RBIs. Connor Norby has 25 hits with 7 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 19 hits with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 15 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 24 hits with 2 triples, a home run and 8 RBIs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 7, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Meyer Record this season: 2-0 ERA: 2.68
Home Record: 2-0
Last 5 against Orioles: –
Why the Miami Marlins will win
The Orioles have lost nine of their last 12 night games following a win.
The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last five Thursday games.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in six of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last nine Thursday night road games.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Cade Povich Record this season: 1-1 ERA: 4.41
Road Record: 0-1
Last 5 against Marlins: –
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
The underdogs have won each of the last four games between the Orioles and Marlins.
The Marlins have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last 13 games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against American League opponents.
The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against American League opponents.
The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against American League opponents.
The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Marlins’ last seven games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Eleven of the Orioles’ last 12 games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last six night games.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Marlins’ last nine games against American League opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
Otto Lopez has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last six games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in eight of his last nine appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (48) this season.
Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts
Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against NL opponents.
Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Taylor Ward ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.434) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (39).
The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
The Orioles rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (4.88).
The Orioles rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.271).
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
I’m on the under here. I still am not sold on Baltimore offensively and I think Max Meyer can have a solid start in this game while Povich could have one himself as the Marlins have not been very good against lefties as of late, calling back to Marlins teams of the last couple of seasons in that regard. All in all, I think this is going to be a low-scoring battle so give me the under in this one.
