Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Prediction 7/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Baltimore Orioles and the Houston Astros meet Friday in MLB action from Daikin Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will start Dean Kremer here and Kremer is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA and 24 strikeouts this season. Peter Lambert will start for the Astros here and is 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their 8-2 win over Kansas City last time out to sit at 46-51 this season. After this series, the Orioles will head on the road for a game against the Boston Red Sox.

Orioles Win 4 In A Row

Taylor Ward has 91 hits with 19 doubles and 25 RBIs while Gunnar Henderson has 89 hits with 16 doubles, 17 home runs and 43 RBIs and Pete Alonso has 91 hits with 17 doubles, 21 home runs and 65 RBIs. Adley Rutschman has 61 hits with 18 doubles, 8 home runs and 47 RBIs. Jeremiah Jackson has 52 hits with 10 doubles, 7 home runs and 35 RBIs as well on the year. Samuel Basallo has 68 hits with 9 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-5 loss at the hands of the Texas Rangers last time out to sit at 47-51 this season. After this series, the Astros will take on the Miami Marlins in a series at home.

Astros Lose 4 Of Last 6

Yordan Alvarez has 111 hits with 17 doubles, 31 home runs and 70 RBIs while Christian Walker has 85 hits with 19 doubles, 20 home runs and 58 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 67 hits with 13 doubles, 11 home runs and 27 RBIs and Isaac Paredes has 84 hits with 18 doubles, 12 home runs and 49 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 70 hits with 13 doubles, 12 home runs and 34 RBIs.

Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Peter Lambert      Record this season: 8-5      ERA: 3.14
• Home Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Orioles: 0-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last six games at Daikin Park against teams that held a losing record.
• The home team has won each of the Orioles’ last four games.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games at Daikin Park against teams that held a losing record.
• The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last three home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against the Orioles.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games at Daikin Park against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Dean Kremer      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 4.09
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Astros: 3-0

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won each of their last five games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a home win.
• The Astros have lost five of their last six games as favorites following a road loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Astros following a win.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road underdogs.
• The Orioles have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Astros’ last eight games as favorites against the Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Orioles’ last five games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Orioles’ last seven games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Astros’ last six night games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in three of the Astros’ last four games as favorites.
• Peter Lambert has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances.
• Peter Lambert has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 11 games against AL East opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.633) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Samuel Basallo has hit at least one home run in three of the Orioles’ last four road games.
• Dean Kremer has recorded a win in each of his four previous appearances with the Orioles as underdogs against the Astros.
• Dean Kremer has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against the Astros.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last eight night games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (427).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for steals this season (34).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (880).
• The Orioles rank 4th in the league for walks this season (371).

Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros Prediction

I’m on the Astros in this one. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, but I think the Astros kind of have more to play for here as the Orioles are up against it down the stretch in the second half while the AL West is wide open. I also think Lambert’s the better starting option in this game so give me the Astros.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Houston -115