Washington Nationals (22-27) vs Atlanta Braves (24-24)
Game Info: Thursday, May 22, 2025 at 6:45 pm (Nationals Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Washington Nationals +130 / Atlanta Braves -155 — Over/Under: 8.5
In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 22, at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves (24-24, 9-17 Away) won the series against the Nationals and Red Sox, but lost the opening game of a new series against the Washington Nationals. Game 1 was played on Tuesday, while yesterday, the game had to be postponed due to bad weather. In a 5-3 defeat on Tuesday, Spencer Strider took the loss after allowing four runs on six hits with three strikeouts and one walk in 4.1 innings.
This year, the Braves average 4.12 runs per game (19th in the MLB) on a .246/.318/.390 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Braves’ staff has a 3.78 ERA (14th) and 1.24 WHIP (14th). Austin Riley leads the Braves with a .283 batting average, eight home runs, and 28 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Braves is AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 3-2 in seven starts this season, with a 2.33 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 38.2 innings.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Washington Nationals (22-27, 11-12 Home) went through their worst period of the season, during which they lost seven consecutive games, but responded with five wins in six games. The Nats are currently on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the Orioles and defeating the Braves in Game 1 of the current series. In a 5-3 victory on Tuesday, Mitchell Parker got the win after allowing three runs on six hits with four strikeouts and one walk across 5.1 innings of work.
This season, the Nationals average 4.33 runs per game (14th in the MLB) on a .242/.312/.390 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Nationals’ staff has a 5.24 ERA (27th) and 1.43 WHIP (25th). Nathaniel Lowe leads the Nationals with a .223 batting average, eight home runs, and 34 RBI this season.
Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Nationals on Thursday. The 33-year-old right-hander has a 2-5 record in nine starts this year with a 5.91 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 45.2 innings.
Why the Braves will beat the Nationals
- The Braves have won each of their last 10 night games against the Nationals at Nationals Park following a loss.
- The Nationals have lost each of their last six night games against the Braves at Nationals Park following a home win.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last four night games against the Nationals at Nationals Park following a loss.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games following a home win.
- The Braves have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Braves’ last eight games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Nationals’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last four road games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six night games between the Braves and Nationals at Nationals Park.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Nationals rank 26th in the league for runs allowed this season (259).
- The Nationals rank 25th in the league for hits allowed this season (444).
- The Braves rank 10th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.233).
- The Braves rank T20th in the league for steals this season (31).
Braves vs Nationals Prediction
The Braves won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the five played this season. I am going with the Braves here because of AJ Smith-Shawver, who already has one win against the Nats this year. In his previous start, he shut the Nats out in 6.0 innings, while Trevor Williams surrendered four runs (three earned) in 4.1 innings in the same game and took the loss. I expect a similar scenario on Thursday and Atlanta’s win.