Arizona Diamondbacks (14-12) vs Atlanta Braves (11-14)
Game Info: Saturday, April 26, 2025 at 8:10 pm (Chase Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks -120 / Atlanta Braves +100 — Over/Under: 9.5
The Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Saturday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Atlanta Braves will send out Grant Holmes for the start here, and Holmes is 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA and 22 strikeouts this season. This will be Holmes’ first career start against Arizona. Merrill Kelly will get the nod for the Diamondbacks here and is 3-1 with a 4.73 ERA and 21 strikeouts this season. In his career, Kelly is 1-2 with a 3.67 ERA and 28 strikeouts.
Atlanta Braves Recap
The Atlanta Braves will be out to build on their series-opening 8-2 win over Arizona on Friday to improve to 11-14 on the year. After this series, the Braves will head on the road for another series against the Colorado Rockies.
Braves Win 6 Of Their Last 7
Austin Riley leads the Braves with 29 hits, including 6 home runs, 16 RBIs, and a team-high 4 doubles, but also has the dubious distinction of leading Atlanta with 32 strikeouts so far this season. Ozzie Albies has 22 hits with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs, and Matt Olson has 20 hits with 4 doubles, 4 home runs, and 15 RBIs of his own. Marcell Ozuna also has 21 hits with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs. Michael Harris II also has 21 hits with 3 doubles, 3 home runs, and 11 RBIs and 4 stolen bases as well, and Nick Allen has a team-high 4 stolen bases this season.
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Braves have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Diamondbacks.
- The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last three games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Braves have covered the run line in six of their last seven games at Chase Field against teams that held a winning record.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Sean Murphy has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances with the Braves as road underdogs.
- Alex Verdugo has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against the Diamondbacks.
- Austin Riley has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves’ last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Austin Riley has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves’ last six games.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in 12 of his last 13 appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
- Marcell Ozuna ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.484) this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
The Arizona Diamondbacks will be out to bounce back after getting their butts whooped in Friday’s series opening loss, falling to 14-12 on the year. After this series, the Diamondbacks will go on the road again for a series against the New York Mets.
Diamondbacks Lose 3 Straight & 5 Of Last 7
Corbin Carroll has a team-high 34 hits with 9 home runs, 23 RBIs, and 8 doubles, while Josh Naylor has 31 hits with 6 doubles, 4 home runs, and 17 RBIs as well this season. Eugenio Suarez has also added 6 home runs and 15 RBIs, while Geraldo Perdomo has 19 RBIs. Naylor has also chipped in 4 stolen bases as well up to this point in the year, while Suarez has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Diamondbacks with 30 strikeouts so far this season. Carroll also has a team-high 5 stolen bases, and Perdomo has 4 stolen bases as well this season.
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Braves have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in five of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Josh Naylor has hit a home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last three games as favorites against NL East opponents.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Geraldo Perdomo has recorded a Single in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine home games against NL opponents.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 15 appearances with the Diamondbacks as home favorites against NL opponents.
- Corbin Carroll has scored at least one run in 10 of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Ketel Marte has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Corbin Carroll ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (9) this season.
Total Runs Facts
- Six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Braves’ last seven games as underdogs against the Diamondbacks have gone OVER the total runs line.
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
I’m on the Diamondbacks here. I get that the Braves looked good in game one, and I do think this is a better Braves team than what they’ve shown so far this season, especially on the road. However, one win on the road is not going to make me suddenly forget the struggles this team has had, and Grant Holmes isn’t the kind of pitcher I’m looking to back in a spot like this. I backed Atlanta on Friday with Chris Sale going, because Arizona has been far less effective against left-handed pitching so far this year. But the Diamondbacks remain one of the league’s best teams against righties, and I think Holmes is a big step down from Sale. Kelly is still one of Arizona’s better starters and could easily be the #2 or even #1 in this rotation with Zac Gallen underwhelming and Corbin Burnes not looking worth the price tag Arizona paid for him early on this year. I think Kelly delivers at home here, and Arizona evens up this series at one win apiece. Give me Arizona in this one.