Astros vs Red Sox Prediction 5/1/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Astros vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 1st at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 12-20 this season after they lost two out of three against the Orioles by scores of 3-5, 3-10, and 11-5. In game three, Houston scored five runs in the first inning and they picked up the blowout victory. The Astros recorded 15 hits in the game and they were led by Harris and Smith, who both had three RBIs. McCullers Jr allowed two hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Abreu allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to that series, Houston lost two out of three against the Yankees, but won two out of three against the Guardians before that. 

This season, Houston has a 6.08 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP and a .263 opponent batting average, while they have scored 168 runs with a .265 batting average and a .346 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added seven home runs and 24 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Mike Burrows, who is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP over 31.2 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 12-19 this year after they lost two out of three against the Blue Jays by scores of 5-0, 0-3, and 1-8. In game three, Boston led 1-0 in the first inning, but they failed to score over the last eight innings for the loss. The Red Sox recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Contreras, who went 2-4 with one home run and one RBI. Bello allowed six hits and four earned runs over 3.2 innings for the loss, while Weissert allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Boston won two out of three against the Orioles, but lost all three against the Yankees before that. 

This season, Boston has a 4.35 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while they have scored 123 runs with a .231 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Wilson Contreras has led the Red Sox with seven home runs and 20 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added two home runs and 17 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is TBD. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has won each of the last four games between the Astros and Red Sox.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against AL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last five games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a road win.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games as favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a road win.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against AL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Astros’ last 11 night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 16 of the Astros’ last 17 games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as home favorites.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Roman Anthony has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites against the Astros.
• Trevor Story has recorded two or more hits in each of the Red Sox’s last five home games against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in four of his last five road appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Christian Vazquez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances at Fenway Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for home runs allowed this season (41).
• The Red Sox rank T26th in the league for strikeouts this season (246).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (175).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for runs allowed this season (194).

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this series after being outscored 11-1 in their last two games, but they did score at least five runs in the three games prior to that. The Red Sox are 5-8 at home this year, while the Astros are 4-12 on the road. Houston has allowed 5+ runs in four of their last five games and they have the worst team ERA in baseball. The Astros are starting Burrows, who has allowed 12 earned runs and 19 hits in his last 15.2 innings, while Boston has not named a starter. We have seen Houston really struggle on the road and with their pitching issues, I will take Boston to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML