Pittsburgh Pirates (23-39) vs Houston Astros (33-28)
Game Info: Thursday, June 5, 2025 at 6:40 pm (PNC Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +136 / Houston Astros -162 — Over/Under: 7.5
In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, June 5th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Houston Astros are 33-28 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 3-0 and 0-3. In their game two loss, Houston fell behind early in the game and never got the offense going in the shutout loss. The Astros recorded seven hits in the game, and they were led by Pena and Diaz, who both had two hits in the loss. Houston started Gusto, who allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Okert, King, and Sousa combined for 3.2 scoreless innings in relief.
Prior to this series, the Astros split four games with the Rays and won both games against the Athletics. Houston has won seven of their last ten games, and they are currently battling Seattle for first in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a .220 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 242 runs with a .251 batting average and a .317 on-base percentage this season. Isaac Paredes has led Houston with 12 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Jeremy Pena has added nine home runs and 30 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 78.0 innings pitched this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 23-39 this year after they won game two by a score of 3-0 on Wednesday night. Pittsburgh scored twice in the second inning and added a third in the third inning, which was enough for the win. The Pirates recorded eight hits in the game, and they were led by McCutchen and Kiner-Falefa, who both had one RBI in the win. Pittsburgh started Burrows, who allowed five hits and zero earned runs over 5.1 innings for the win, while Bednar picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Padres, but did win two out of three against the Diamondbacks before that. Pittsburgh has lost three of its last five games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 197 runs with a .227 batting average and a .305 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 12 home runs and 26 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added seven home runs and 34 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 1-7 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 70.0 innings pitched this year.
Why the Astros will beat the Pirates
- The Pirates have lost each of their last six night games following a home win.
- The Astros have won each of their last four night games following a loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against AL West opponents following a home win.
- The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last four games against the Pirates following a road loss.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Pirates’ last four games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Astros’ last seven road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five night games between the Astros and Pirates.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Astros’ last six road games.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Pirates’ last six night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
- Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against AL West opponents.
- Jack Suwinski has hit at least one home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
- Jared Triolo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Ji-Hwan Bae has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded a Double in three of the Pirates’ last four games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded a Single in each of the Pirates’ last six games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Isaac Paredes has hit at least one home run in three of the Astros’ last four road games.
- Christian Walker has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Astros’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
- Christian Walker has scored a run in four of the Astros’ last five games against NL Central opponents.
- Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances.
- Framber Valdez has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
- Jake Meyers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last nine night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Jeremy Pena has recorded a Double in three of the Astros’ last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros’ last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Astros vs Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh was able to get the win in game two of this series on Wednesday night to even the series at one, but I still don’t trust their offense at all. The Pirates are 14-17 at home this year, while the Astros are 11-16 on the road. Houston has been better at the plate when looking at the season stats, but they are struggling right now. The Astros are starting Valdez, who has allowed one earned run in four of his last five starts. The Pirates are starting Keller, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five outings. Both of these pitchers have been very strong recently, but I think Valdez has the advantage, especially against this Pittsburgh lineup. Take the Astros -1.5 here.