| MATCHUP | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 55-51 | 54-52 |
| Spread | +1.5 -194 | -1.5 159 |
| Moneyline | +102 | -123 |
| Total | Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115) |
| Where | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania | |
| When | Monday, July 27, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 54-52 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 28-26 home record and are coming off an 8-7 home win against the Cubs. They will face the Reds and the Brewers next.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .260 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .422 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .313 batting average. Ryan O’Hearn leads the team in RBI with 68, while Brandon Lowe adds a team-high 21 home runs.
Mitch Keller (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 6-7 record, 4.90 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 55-51 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 24-29 away record and are coming off a 7-10 road loss against the Nationals. They will face the Guardians and the Padres next.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .242 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Ildemaro Vargas is the team’s best hitter with a .272 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 61, adding a team-high 19 home runs.
Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he has a 8-8 record, 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: July 27, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller Record this season: 6-7 ERA: 4.90
- Home Record: 4-5
- Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 1-0
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Pirates have won four of their last five games against the Diamondbacks.
- The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five road games following a road loss.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in five of their last six home games against the Diamondbacks.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against National League opponents.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- The Pirates have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly Record this season: 8-8 ERA: 5.12
- Road Record: 4-5
- Last 5 against Pirates: 3-1
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Pirates have lost each of their last six night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Diamondbacks have won each of their last six night games against the Pirates following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against NL West opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against NL West opponents.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against NL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Pirates’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in 10 of the Pirates’ last 11 games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Diamondbacks’ last six Monday games against NL Central opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 11 games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- Nick Gonzales ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.313) this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Ketel Marte has hit at least one home run in two of the Diamondbacks’ last three games at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 17 appearances with his team as an underdog against NL Central opponents.
- Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 road appearances against NL opponents.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
- Corbin Carroll is one of only eight players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (957).
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (957).
- The Diamondbacks rank T1st in the league for triples this season (24).
- The Diamondbacks rank T1st in the league for triples this season (24).
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Diamondbacks and have won their last two meetings in Pittsburgh.
In this Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -120 home favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, as they both have a combined 10.02 ERA and both offenses have been red-hot lately, averaging 11.5 runs per game combined in their last 10 games. On top of that, both bullpens have been bottom-8 in the league after the break and they are 7-2 to the over in their last 9 games combined, so I am expecting a high-scoring affair today. Take the over 9 runs.