Philadelphia Phillies (17-14) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (17-14)
Game Info: Friday, May 2, 2025 at 6:45 pm (Citizens Bank Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -148 / Arizona Diamondbacks +124 — Over/Under: 9
The Arizona Diamondbacks are visiting the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, May 2nd, at the Citizens Bank Park in the opening game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction. We will examine:
The Philadelphia Phillies’ recent form and player performance
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arizona Diamondbacks
Recent betting trends in games played between the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies game
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 17-14 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL East. They have an 11-5 home record, and are 15-16 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-4 home defeat by the Nationals, ending their previous four-game winning streak. The Phillies have a .251 batting average this season, a .335 OBP, and a .384 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 34 hits and in batting average with .298, while Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 23 RBI and 9 home runs.
Jesus Luzardo (L) will take the mound for the Phillies, and he has a 3-0 record, 1.73 ERA, and 1.07 WHIP. He has one or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts, and in his only start against the Dbacks last season, he had one earned run in 6 innings pitched.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 17-14 record this season and are sitting in 4th place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have a 9-6 road record and 15-12 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 road victory over the Mets, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Over is 6-2 in their last 7 games. The Diamondbacks have a .245 batting average this season, a .331 OBP, and a .438 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.47 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Corbin Carroll leads the Diamondbacks with 38 hits, adding 23 RBI, while Jacob Perdomo leads the team in RBI with 25. Josh Naylor is the team’s best hitter with a .319 batting average.
Merrill Kelly (R) will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 3-1 record, 4.41 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP. He has been significantly weaker on the road, with a 6.46 ERA, but he has just two earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched in his last two road starts.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last 12 home games against National League opponents following a home loss.
- The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five night games after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents following a home loss.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games.
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Diamondbacks have won three of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have lost four of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Diamondbacks following a home loss.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs following a road win.
- The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against the Phillies.
- The Phillies have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against the Phillies.
Total Runs Facts
- Ten of the Phillies’ last 11 home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Diamondbacks’ last 10 night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight night games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Phillies’ last seven games against NL West opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (301).
- The Phillies rank T3rd in the league for triples this season (6).
- The Diamondbacks rank T2nd in the league for doubles this season (63).
- The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (129).
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
In their 7 meetings last season, the Dbacks led the Phillies 4-3 wins, but the Phillies won their only series in Philadelphia with 2-1 wins. Under is 6-3-1 in their last 10 meetings.
In this Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -150 home favorites. Both teams have identical records, and both teams are coming in good form, so this line feels a bit inflated towards the Phillies. The Phillies have the pitching advantage, but the Dbacks have a better bullpen, but they are significantly weaker against lefties this season, as they are hitting with .229, as opposed to their average of .246. The Phillies are hitting righties by .245, and combined with the pitching and home court advantage, I expect them to have the lead in the first half. Take the Philadelphia Phillies on the runline in the first 5 innings.