Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction 6/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, June 11th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 33-35 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have a 22-16 home record and are coming off an 8-0 home win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Pirates and the Phillies next.

The Marlins have a .246 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .384 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .342 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 48, adding a team-high 12 home runs.

Tyler Phillips (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 0-1 record, 2.08 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 34-33 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 13-19 road record and are coming off a 0-8 road defeat against the Marlins. They will face the Reds and the Angels next.

The Diamondbacks have a .240 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Corbin Carroll is the team’s best hitter with a .284 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 40, adding a team-high 11 home runs.

Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 5-4 record, 5.71 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: June 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Tyler Phillips      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 2.08
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-0

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last eight games against NL West opponents following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last five road games.
• The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last six games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 5-4      ERA: 5.71
• Road Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Diamondbacks and Marlins.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 day games against NL West opponents following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 games at LoanDepot Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last six home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last six day games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four day games at LoanDepot Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of the Marlins’ last five games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of his 11 previous appearances with the Marlins as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (91) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Corbin Carroll has hit a home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four games as underdogs.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Geraldo Perdomo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 road games against NL opponents.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in six of his last seven road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Corbin Carroll ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.555) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (77).
• The Marlins rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (15).
• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (17).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (469).

Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction

The Marlins have won their last 5 meetings against the Dbacks and have won their last three visits in Arizona. Over is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -115 home favorites. The Marlins are going for a bullpen game but I still think they will get the job done. They have a far better bullpen than the Dbacks, they are far better against right-handed pitching and Merrill Kelly has terrible numbers and an atrocious 7.63 xERA. The Marlins have been dominating the Dbacks lately and I expect them to keep doing so today.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Miami Marlins ML