| MATCHUP | Arizona Diamondbacks | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 16-16 | 21-12 |
| Spread | +1.5 -136 | -1.5 113 |
| Moneyline | +129 | -156 |
| Total | Over 11.5 (-105) | Under 11.5 (-115) |
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois | |
| When | Sunday, May 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 02:20 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, May 3rd in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs have a 21-12 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the NL Central. They have a 13-5 home record and are coming off a 2-0 win at home against the Diamondbacks. Their previous three games were a 6-5 win at home against the Diamondbacks, a 5-4 win and an 8-3 win on the road against the Padres.
The Cubs have a .258 batting average this season, .350 OBP and .425 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 26. Ian Happ adds a team‑high 8 home runs.
Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 1-1 record, 7.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 16-16 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL West. They have a 7-10 away record and are coming off a 0-2 loss on the road against the Cubs. Their previous three games were a 5-6 loss on the road against the Cubs, a 1-13 loss and a 6-2 win on the road against the Brewers.
The Diamondbacks have a .248 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .410 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.96 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Ildemaro Vargas is the team’s best hitter with a .388 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 21 and adding a team‑high 6 home runs.
Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 1-2 record, 9.20 ERA and 2.25 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: May 3, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd Record this season: 1-1 ERA: 7.00
- Home Record: 1-1
- Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-2
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last 10 home games.
- The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last eight day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a home win.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven games as underdogs.
- The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly Record this season: 1-2 ERA: 9.20
- Road Record: 1-1
- Last 5 against Cubs: 1-0
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Cubs have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a home win.
- The Diamondbacks have won five of their last seven games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games following a road loss.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Sunday games.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Cubs’ last six home games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Diamondbacks’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Cubs’ last six games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Diamondbacks’ last five day games against NL Central opponents.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last five home games.
- Matthew Boyd has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against NL West opponents.
- Matthew Boyd has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances.
- Carson Kelly has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight appearances against former teams.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
- Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 road appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
- Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.388) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.350).
- The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for runs scored this season (177).
- The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (10).
- The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (84).
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction
The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Diamondbacks and are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Chicago.
In this Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -160 home favorites. Both starting pitchers have been atrocious so far with a combined 16.20 ERA and you got winds blowing out in Wrigley Field by more than 20 miles per hour, so this will be a high-scoring games, as expected by the books who set the total at 12 runs. Kelly has 13 earned runs in his last two starts and Boyd gave up 5 runs in his last start. Arizona is the best team against lefties this season and ranks 25th in bullpen ERA while the Cubs have the second-best offense in baseball. I will gladly go over that big number today, so take the over 12.