| MATCHUP | Arizona Diamondbacks | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 16-14 | 19-12 |
| Spread | +1.5 -186 | -1.5 153 |
| Moneyline | +119 | -143 |
| Total | Over 7 (-112) | Under 7 (-108) |
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois | |
| When | Friday, May 1, 2026 | |
| Time | 02:20 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, May 1st in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs have a 19-12 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL Central. They have a 11-5 home record and are coming off a 5-4 win on the road against the Padres. Their previous three games were an 8-3 win and a 7-9 loss on the road against the Padres, and a 0-6 loss on the road against the Dodgers.
The Cubs have a .261 batting average this season, .353 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 26. Ian Happ adds a team‑high 7 home runs.
Colin Rea (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 3-1 record, 4.61 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 16-14 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL West. They have a 7-8 away record and are coming off a 1-13 loss on the road against the Brewers. Their previous three games were a 6-2 win and a 2-13 loss on the road against the Brewers, and a 12-7 win at home against the Padres.
The Diamondbacks have a .250 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .418 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.99 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Ildemaro Vargas is the team’s best hitter with a .378 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 20 and adding a team‑high 6 home runs.
Zac Gallen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 1-1 record, 3.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: May 1, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Colin Rea Record this season: 3-1 ERA: 4.61
- Home Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-0
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last eight home games.
- The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last four home games.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine road games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four games at Wrigley Field against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen Record this season: 1-1 ERA: 3.14
- Road Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Cubs: 3-2
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Cubs following a loss.
- The Cubs have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a road loss.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Cubs’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Diamondbacks’ last six day games against NL Central opponents.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last three home games.
- Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 12 day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
- Zac Gallen has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against the Cubs.
- Zac Gallen has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
- Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 26 appearances.
- Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.378) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.353).
- The Cubs rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (141).
- The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (10).
- The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (81).
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Cubs are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Chicago.
In this Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -140 home favorites. The Cubs have been the better team this season, with a better overall record, a strong home record and the third-best offense in baseball. Rea has been better at home this season, while Gallen has been weaker on the road, with a 5.14 road ERA and a 4.95 expected ERA. The Cubs also have a better bullpen, ranking 9th in bullpen ERA, as the Dbacks are just 25th and have 13 earned runs in two of their last three games. Take the Cubs on the moneyline at home.