Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks

New York Mets (25-15) vs Chicago Cubs (23-17)

Game Info: Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 12:05 pm (Citi Field)

M. Boyd (L) vs G. Canning (R)

Betting Odds: New York Mets -130 / Chicago Cubs +110 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: Roku

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 11, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs (23-17, 13-8 Away) snapped a three-game losing skid with a 6-5 victory over the New York Mets last night. The Cubs lost the previous series to the San Francisco Giants, but now have a chance to win the rubber game in Queens and clinch the series. In the latest 6-5 win, Dansby Swanson and Miguel Amaya led the team with two RBI apiece, while Cade Horton got the win after allowing three runs on four hits with five strikeouts and no walks in 4.0 innings.

This year, the Cubs average 5.78 runs per game (1st in the MLB) on a .256/.334/.443 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Cubs’ staff has a 4.04 ERA (18th) and 1.31 WHIP (20th). Kyle Tucker leads the Cubs with a .276 batting average, ten home runs, and 32 RBI this season.

Matthew Boyd will take the mound for the Cubs on Sunday. 34-year-old left-hander has a 3-2 record in seven starts this year with a 2.75 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 39.1 innings.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (25-15, 14-4 Home) beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on the road to get revenge for an earlier series loss to the D-backs at home, and now are trying to win over the Cubs after losing Game 2 of the series on Saturday. In that 6-5 defeat, Brett Baty drove in all five RBI for the Mets, which was his career-high, while Tylor Megill took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings. 

This season, the Mets average 4.83 runs per game (9th in the MLB) on a .252/.332/.428 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 2.90 ERA (1st) and 1.25 WHIP (14th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .322 batting average, nine home runs, and 34 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Mets is Griffin Canning, who is 5-1 in seven starts this season, with a 2.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 36.0 innings.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Cubs' last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Mets' last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last four road games against NL East opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the last six day games between the Cubs and Mets at Citi Field.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Mets rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (24).
  • The Mets rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (130).
  • The Cubs rank 1st in the league for steals this season (49).
  • The Cubs rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (358).

Cubs vs Mets Prediction

The Mets won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last six. Although both games of this series went Over, the Under hit in six of the last ten H2H duels. I am going with another Under because of the pitching matchup. Matthew Boyd hasn't allowed more than three runs in a game this season and has four quality starts thus far, while Griffin Canning has allowed three runs in his last four starts. It's going to be a solid defensive game and a low-scoring one.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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