Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction 5/1/25 MLB Picks

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 21-10 on the year and play the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Cubs next. The New York Mets are batting .246 on the season, have a .325 OBP, and a .416 slugging percentage. The New York Mets pitching staff has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Francisco Lindor leads the New York Mets with 37 hits and 16 RBI, while Pete Alonso and Juan Soto have combined for 64 hits and 40 RBI.

Kodai Senga gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 3-1 with a 1.26 ERA and 25 strikeouts this season. Senga is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his career against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games against the Mets following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 11 games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won six of their last nine games as underdogs following a road win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs following a road win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as favorites following a home loss.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in four of the Mets' last five games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Mets as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Kodai Senga has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Mets as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets' last five games as favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded a Single in each of his last four home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Pete Alonso has scored at least one run in each of the Mets' last seven games as home favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Kodai Senga has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last 11 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.474) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Zac Gallen has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded at least one Single in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Ketel Marte has hit a home run in each of his last three road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded a hit in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents.
• Gabriel Moreno has scored a run in each of the Diamondbacks' last four games at Citi Field.
• Corbin Carroll ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.625) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

The Mets are going to get the benefit of the doubt at home as they’re arguably the best team in baseball, and Senga has been great in 28.2 innings. Senga has allowed 21 hits and four earned runs this season. However, you’re getting plus money with Gallen on the mound, an all-star caliber pitcher who is far better than what he’s shown through 32.1 innings. It’s only a matter of time before Gallen gets his act together, and I still see value with him in the plus money role. Gallen has also held current Mets to a .227 batting average in 21 strikeouts in 88 at-bats. I’ll take a stab with the Diamondbacks and the more favorable price.