Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction 4/25/25 MLB Picks

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 14-10 this season after they won two out of three against the Yankees by scores of 6-4, 3-2, and 1-5. In that game three loss, Cleveland cut the deficit to 2-1 in the first inning, but failed to score in the final eight innings for the loss. The Guardians recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Arias, who scored the only run for Cleveland in the loss. Cleveland started Ortiz, who allowed five hits and four earned runs over 4.1 innings pitched in the loss, while Kent allowed three hits and one earned run over 3.0 innings out of the bullpen. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians won all three against the Pirates, but did lose two out of three against the Orioles before that. Cleveland has won five of their last six games and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .251 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 96 runs with a .235 batting average and a .306 on base percentage this season. Kyle Manzardo has led Cleveland with seven home runs and 18 RBIs, while Steven Kwan has added four home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Ben Lively, who is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 25.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Red Sox 

• The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 11 games as favorites against the Guardians following a loss.
• The Guardians have won three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against the Guardians following a home loss.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against the Red Sox.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Red Sox's last seven night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the Guardians' last four home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last eight games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Guardians' last 10 games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Steven Kwan has scored at least one run in each of the Guardians' last five night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last nine games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians' last nine games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez has hit at least one home run in three of the Guardians' last four games against the Red Sox at Progressive Field.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Guardians' last five home games against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Wilyer Abreu has recorded an RBI in each of the Red Sox's last four games against the Guardians.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in three of the Red Sox's last four games against AL opponents.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in seven of the Red Sox's last eight games as favorites.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox's last 11 games.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox's last two night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction 

Boston comes into this series after dropping two out of three against the Mariners and they are just 6-7 on the road this year. Cleveland is 7-2 at home and they have plenty of momentum, as they just beat New York two out of three times. I don’t love either pitcher in this matchup, as Lively has been super inconsistent and Houck allowed 11 earned runs two starts ago. We are getting a pretty solid price for a Cleveland team that has been elite at home, so give me the Guardians here.