Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction 4/22/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cincinnati Reds

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Reds and Marlins

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Reds vs Marlins game

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

Cincinnati kicked off its season on an unfortunate skid, falling in series versus the San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, and Milwaukee Brewers in its first three tries. The Reds would finally get a series win in their rematch against the Giants during early April, then the team managed a sweep versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cincinnati would then lose two of three versus the Mariners. After a split in the first pair versus the Orioles, on Sunday, the Reds posted an insane win, 24-2, to take the set. Cincinnati got a combined 13 RBI on 11 hits from the duo of Noelvi Marte and Austin Wynns in that victory. 

In Monday’s opener versus Miami, Cincinnati gave up 10 hits in a 6-3 loss. Gavin Lux posted two of the team’s RBIs in the defeat, while starter Nick Lodolo took the loss on 5.2 innings, three earned, seven hits, and two walks. 

As a starter for Tuesday’s game, the Reds will send out Nick Martinez. This year, Martinez is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in four starts over 21.0 total innings. Martinez is 37-48 with a 4.14 ERA in 244 career games (107 starts). He’s also got nine saves total. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Over on the Miami side, they kicked off their season on a four-game series win over four games versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, and then fell in a set versus the Mets. Miami split a pair of games versus the Braves, then fell in two of three versus the Mets, again ahead of a series win versus the Washington Nationals. Following a sweep by the Diamondbacks, Miami lost Friday 7-2 and Saturday 11-10 to the Phillies. In the Sunday finale, the Marlins scored twice in the top of the 10th inning and held on for the victory, 7-5, to stave off the sweep. Javier Sanoja did most of the offensive work with three hits, two runs, five RBI, and a homer. 

On Monday, Miami scored three runs in the seventh inning alone on the way to the win. Max Meyer lasted 6.0 innings with no earned runs on five hits as a starter. 

In the starter slot for the Marlins on Tuesday, it’ll be Edward Cabrera. So far, over two starts, Cabrera is 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA in 9.2 innings overall. Cabrera is 17-23 with a 4.39 ERA in 65 career games (63 starts) in total. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have lost each of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last seven night games following a home win.
• The Reds have won nine of their last 10 night games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven Tuesday night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Tuesday games against the Marlins.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Reds' last 12 games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Marlins' last 10 games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Reds' last eight road games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Marlins' last seven home games.

Reds vs Marlins Prediction 

I’ll stick with the Reds. Probably not touching this one, though. Martinez hasn’t been spectacular this season so far, going 0-3 over four starts. In his last three, Martinez is 0-2 with 10 combined earned runs across 15.0 total innings on 19 hits and six walks. Granted, Martinez should be able to handle Miami’s bats if he’s on point—but he’ll struggle if not. As for Cabrera, he’s got one good start (5.2 innings; two earned versus Washington) and one bad start (4.0 innings; five earned in a loss to the Diamondbacks) on his card so far. 

Cincinnati didn’t get the greatest pitching effort on Monday in the loss, as their first two arms gave up six earned runs over 7.0 innings between them. The Reds' offense wasn’t good enough either, but the good news is that the hits were spread out well. Cincinnati will need some more juice from both sides on Tuesday, though.