Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 4/20/25 MLB Picks

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 13-8 on the year and play the Mets, Cubs, and Nationals next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .253 on the season, have a .342 OBP, and a .399 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff has a 4.28 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Nick Castellanos leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 23 hits and 13 RBI while Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have combined for 41 hits and 28 RBI.

Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. This will be Luzardo’s first career game against the Miami Marlins.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park against teams that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park against teams that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in five of their last six home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won eight of their last 10 Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four day games against the Marlins following a home win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last nine Sunday games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against NL East opponents following a home win.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four home appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in five of his last seven appearances at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last seven appearances at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against NL East opponents .
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.436) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has scored at least one run in three of the Marlins' last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in four of the Marlins' last five games as underdogs against the Phillies.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in 29 of his last 34 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

After a surprising start to the season, the Marlins have lost five straight games and are falling apart at the plate and on the mound. The Marlins basically look like the Marlins we expected them to look. Gillispie has allowed 19 hits and 14 earned runs in 19 innings, so he’s probably not the guy to right the ship. The Phillies have caught fire offensively and Luzardo has allowed four runs in 18.1 innings. Luzardo spent the last four seasons with the Marlins, so this is a potential revenge spot. Give me the Phillies and the RL for max betting value. The Marlins are fade material at the moment, especially against good teams and pitchers.