Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4/18/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cleveland Guardians

Recent betting trends in games played between the Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates game

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have an 8-12 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. The Pirates have a 6-4 home record and are 8-11 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-0 home victory over the Washington Nationals, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games. The Pirates have a .197 batting average this season, .283 OBP and .302 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa leads the Pirates with 17 hits, and he is also the team’s best hitter with a .270 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team with 10 RBI and 4 home runs.

Carmen Mlodzinski (R) will take the mound for the Pirates, and he has a 1-2 record, 6.23 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. He has given up 4 runs in two of his three starts this season, and this will be his first start against the Guardian in his career.  

Cleveland Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians have a 9-9 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL Central. The Guardians have a 4-8 road record and are 9-7 in over/under They are coming off a 2-6 road defeat by the Baltimore Orioles, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. The Guardians have a .228 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has a 4.06 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Steven Kwan leads the Guardians with 22 hits and a team-high .310 batting average. He also adds a team-high 11 RBI.

Luis Ortiz (R) will take the mound for the Guardians, and he has a 1-2 record, 6.06 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He has been terrible in his two road starts this season, giving up 10 runs in 10.2 innings of work, as the Guardians lost both games.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last seven road games after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won five of the Guardians' last six games at PNC Park.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven road games after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in five of the Guardians' last six games at PNC Park.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight night games following a win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 night games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games following a home win.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have won the first inning in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Guardians' last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Pirates' last seven games as underdogs against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last five games as road favorites.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 15 of the Pirates' last 18 night games against American League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.197).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.302).
• The Guardians rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (17).
• The Guardians rank T27th in the league for steals this season (8).

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

The Guardians won their only series against the Pirates last season by 2-1 wins. They are 5-2 in their last 7 overall meetings, and over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, the Guardians are coming as -135 road favorites. I cannot make a case for the Guardians as road favorites in this spot, as they are putting one of their weakest pitchers on the mound, and have been terrible on the road this season. Both teams are coming in poor form into this matchup and both pitchers are struggling with a combined 12.42 ERA, so I will take a pass on the side and will look for a high-scoring game as long as those two pitchers are on the mound. Take the over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings.