Cardinals vs Mets Prediction 4/17/25 MLB Picks

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 11-7 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. New York is coming off of a series loss against Minnesota, where they lost two out of three games by scores of 5-1, 3-6, and 3-4. In that game three loss, the Mets erased a 3-0 lead in the eighth inning, but failed to score in the top of the 10th and lost in the bottom half. New York recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Alonso, Winker, and Acuna, who all had one RBI in the loss. The Mets started Brazoban, who only pitched the first inning, while Hagenman and Butto combined to allow seven hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings out of the bullpen. 

Prior to that series, the Mets won two out of three against the Athletics and two out of three against the Marlins. The New York pitching staff has a 2.38 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .223 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 72 runs with a .219 batting average and a .301 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with five home runs and 21 RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has added four home runs and nine RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Griffin Canning, who is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 15.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Cardinals will beat the Mets 

• The Cardinals have won each of their last five night games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last five road games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games at Citi Field following an extra innings loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cardinals' last four games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mets' last seven night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 10 of the Cardinals' last 12 night games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the last six night games between the Cardinals and Mets at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against NL opponents.
• Pete Alonso has scored a run in each of the Mets' last four games.
• Juan Soto has hit a home run in each of the Mets' last two night games.
• Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in three of the Mets' last four night games.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Cardinals after playing the previous day.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last eight home games.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Willson Contreras has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Alec Burleson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Cardinals' last four road games against NL East opponents.
• Lars Nootbaar has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals' last 11 road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cardinals' last seven road games against NL opponents.
• Masyn Winn has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 road appearances against NL opponents.

Cardinals vs Mets Prediction 

New York comes into this series trying to bounce back after a disappointing result in Minnesota, but they are 5-1 at home. St. Louis was able to take two out of three against Houston in their last series, but they are just 1-5 on the road. The Cardinals have one of the highest scoring lineups in the MLB so far this year and they are starting Pallante, who has allowed four earned runs over 16.1 innings of work. The Mets are the better team here, but I don’t trust Canning on the mound. Take St. Louis to win.