Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 4/11/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Royals

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cleveland Guardians

Recent betting trends in games played between the Royals and Guardians

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Royals vs Guardians game

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

KC opened up the season with a matchup versus Cleveland. The Royals won 4-3 in game two but dropped the other pair. The Milwaukee Brewers series finished in similar fashion, with Kansas City losing two of three. The Royals finally got a series win over the Baltimore Orioles last weekend, with victories in two of the three outings. Kansas City kept it going with wins over the Minnesota Twins 4-2 and 2-1 this week, then in game three, the Royals managed just three team hits in a 4-0 shutout loss. Bobby Witt had one of those hits, as well as the team’s only walk in the defeat. 

In the Thursday finale versus the Twins, KC scored twice in the seventh inning and held on for a 3-2 victory. Bobby Witt managed two hits, a run, and an RBI, while starter Michael Wacha lasted 5.1 innings with two earned runs. 

As the starting pitcher for Friday’s matchup, the Royals will go with Kris Bubic. So far this year, over his two starts, Bubic is 2-0 with a clean ERA over 12.2 innings of work. Bubic is 13-29 with a 4.50 ERA in 99 career games (62 starts) at the MLB level. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

Over on the Guardians’ side, they managed wins 7-4 and 6-2 in their opening series versus Kansas City. Cleveland would go on to get swept by the San Diego Padres in their second set, then lose two of three versus the Los Angeles Angels. The Guardians eked out a 1-0 win over the Chicago White Sox this week, then on Wednesday in game two, Cleveland eked out a 3-2 win, scoring all three runs in the first three innings. Starter Logan Allen pitched 4.2 innings, no earned, four hits, two walks, and four strikeouts. 

In the Thursday matchup, the Guardians kept it going for the sweep, notching 10 hits in a 6-1 victory. Steven Kwan came away with a homer, four RBI, four hits, and two runs in the win. 

It’ll be Tanner Bibee in the starting pitcher role for Cleveland on Friday. This year so far, Bibee has two starts under his belt, going 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA over 9.2 innings total. Bibee is 23-13 over 58 career starts in the MLB, notching a 3.35 ERA. 

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Royals have lost each of their last six night games at Progressive Field following a home win.
• The Guardians have won seven of their last eight games against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last three games against the Royals.
• The Royals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Guardians have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Royals following a home win.
• The Royals have won each of their last seven Friday games against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last six games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Royals' last 13 night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Twelve of the Guardians' last 16 home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Royals and Guardians.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the Royals' last six road games against American League opponents.

Royals vs Guardians Prediction 

I’ll stick with Cleveland. That said, Bibee needs a major return to form here. All went well on March 30 in his season debut versus the Royals, as Bibee posted 5.2 clean frames on two hits and two walks in a victory. On April 5 in his second outing versus the Angels, however, Bibee was pummeled for seven earned on eight hits and a walk in 4.0 innings, taking the loss. Another start like his debut would be great news for the Guardians. 

Cleveland’s offense will have their hands full with Bubic, though. With over 12.2 total innings this year, Bubic is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA on seven hits and three walks. The Guardians scored nine combined runs in their last two installments of the White Sox series, though, so that’s a good sign for their bats heading into the weekend (even though Chicago has been struggling). It should be a pretty fun series overall.