Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 4/10/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Toronto Blue Jays

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Boston Red Sox

Recent betting trends in games played between the Blue Jays and Red Sox

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Blue Jays vs Red Sox game

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

This year, the Jays opened up their season with a matchup versus the Baltimore Orioles. Toronto won the second and fourth installments in that set for a tie. The Blue Jays would sweep the Washington Nationals in their next series, then got swept by the Mets over the weekend. Toronto then bagged a 6-2 win over Boston in their Monday series opener. George Springer had a perfect 4-for-4 day with a run and three RBI in the victory. On Tuesday in game two, the Blue Jays kept it going with a 6-1 victory, scoring four times in the sixth. 

In the Wednesday matchup, Toronto eked out a 2-1 win in 11 innings. Will Wagner and Bo Bichette had the RBI, while Vladimir Guerrero had three hits with a run. 

In the starting pitcher slot for the Jays on Thursday, it’ll be Chris Bassitt. This year over his two starts, Bassitt is 1-0 with a nice 0.71 ERA over 12.2 total innings. In his career, Bassitt is 73-56 with a 3.56 ERA in 202 games (189 starts). 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Over on the Red Sox’ side, they lost three of four to the Texas Rangers in their opening set. Boston did better against the Orioles as April began, taking two of three games for a series victory. The Sox rolled right past the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-game sweep over the weekend ahead of Monday’s defeat. In game two, Boston had eight team hits and a pair of errors on the way to the loss. Zack Kelly had a rough outing in relief on 1.2 innings, four hits, two earned and a walk alongside two Ks. 

On Wednesday, the Red Sox posted just four hits on the way to the defeat. Rafael Devers had two of them. Starter Tanner Houck lasted 6.2 innings with one earned on five hits and two walks alongside two Ks. 

Walker Buehler will take the mound for the starter role on Thursday. So far this year, over his two starts, Buehler is 1-1 with an 8.68 ERA. In his MLB career, Buehler is 48-23 with a 3.34 ERA in 133 games (124 starts). 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last four road games after going to extra innings.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last three day games at Fenway Park after going to extra innings.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games as favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 Thursday day games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four road day games.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last eight day games at Fenway Park following a win.
• The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Blue Jays following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against the Blue Jays following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays' last 11 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox's last six games as favorites against the Blue Jays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Blue Jays' last eight road games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Blue Jays and Red Sox.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction 

I’ll stay with the Jays. Bassitt has done well in his two starts so far this year. with just one earned run in 12.2 total frames on 12 hits and two walks. Bassitt is coming off a no-decision versus the Mets on April 5 despite posting 6.2 clean frames, four hits, and no walks. As for Buehler, he got a shaky win over the Cardinals in his last start on April 4, giving up five earned on seven hits and a walk in 5.0 innings. That makes nine earned runs in 9.1 innings total.  

The Blue Jays got a stellar outing from starter Kevin Gausman in the Wednesday win. Gausman put up 8.0 clean frames with four hits, no walks, and 10 Ks. Jeff Hoffman and Nick Sandlin finished with 3.0 innings, no hits, no earned, one walk, and four strikeouts between them. I’d like to see the bats get moving in the finale, but it should be another good game.