Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction 4/7/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Mets

Recent betting trends in games played between the Marlins and Mets

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Marlins vs Mets game

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Marlins kicked off their 2025 campaign with a four-game set versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, winning three of those games for a series victory. Miami didn’t fare as well in their second matchup versus the New York Mets, winning just one of three games in that series. In the opener of the weekend series versus the Braves, Miami took a blowout loss 10-0, then on Saturday in game two the Marlins returned the favor with a 4-0 victory. Miami notched 10 team hits in that one, with Matt Mervis collecting three of them along with his three RBI and two home runs. Liam Hicks added a pair of hits with an RBI. 

On Sunday in the series finale, Miami saw the game called off roughly 90 minutes before the scheduled first pitch. The incoming rain postponed the matchup, which will be made up as part of a split doubleheader on August 9. A Marlins loss would have given the 1-8 Braves their first series win of the season, but now Atlanta will have to wait for that milestone. 

It’ll be Valente Bellozo in the start for the Marlins on Monday. This year Bellozo has a 2.08 ERA, four strikeouts and no decisions yet.

New York Mets Betting Preview

Over on the Mets’ side, they took on the Houston Astros in their opening series this year. New York lost two of those three games, winning only the second matchup 3-1. The Mets did better against the Miami Marlins, taking a loss last Tuesday in between victories 10-4 and 6-5 otherwise. New York kicked off the weekend series versus the Blue Jays well, hitting a 5-0 win on Friday. In game two the Mets were able to eke out a 3-2 walk-off win despite getting out-hit 10-8 on the day. Jesse Winker put up two RBI with three hits, and Francisco Lindor had the other RBI along with a run. 

On Sunday in the finale, New York scored both their runs in the third inning on the way to a tight 2-1 victory. The Mets’ Pete Alonso (two hits) and Brandon Nimmo posted the RBI, while Hayden Senger and Juan Soto each had a run. Starter David Peterson lasted 4.2 innings with one earned on three hits and five walks. 

As starter for Monday, the Mets are sending out Kodai Senga. This year in his first start Senga took a loss with 5.0 innings and two earned runs—coincidentally against the Marlins. In his career of MLB play, Senga is 13-8 with a 3.01 ERA in 31 starts total. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last nine games at Citi Field following a win.
• The Mets have won each of their last nine games as home favorites.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Monday games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in three of their last four home games.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last four games as underdogs following a road win.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last 10 games as home favorites against the Marlins following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 10 of their last 12 games as underdogs.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets' last four night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins' last five road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Mets' last nine games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Marlins' last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Marlins vs Mets Prediction 

I’ll probably just lean toward the Mets, but the line's too thick to mess with anyway. Senga didn’t pitch too badly in his debut this year, but still ended up taking a loss. In that April Fool’s Day defeat, Senga lasted 5.0 innings with two earned on three hits and a walk alongside eight strikeouts. If he can return to form in this opener, Senga should be able to give New York a quality start, which would set the team up well for a potential W. 

The Mets played a pretty tight game versus the Blue Jays on Sunday. Starter Peterson was in a couple sticky situations but everything worked out well in the end thanks to a strong bullpen performance (4.1 innings; no earned; one hit; no walks, five Ks). The offense did just enough to eke out the victory on seven team hits. I’d like to see the bats cash in a few more opportunities on Monday, though.