Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 4/6/25 MLB Picks

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 1-8 this year after they lost game two on Saturday, but they did win game one in this series by a score of 10-0. In the game two loss, the Braves fell behind in the first inning and could never get on the scoreboard. Atlanta recorded seven hits and committed one error in the game, while they were led by Baldwin, who went 2-4 in the loss. The Braves started Smith-Shawver, who allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Suarez allowed one earned run and two hits over 3.1 innings in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Braves were swept in three games by the Dodgers and swept in four games by the Padres. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 4.36 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .251 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 24 runs with a .193 batting average and a .280 on base percentage this season. Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna have led Atlanta with one home run and five RBIs each this year. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Grant Holmes, who is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Braves 

• The Marlins have won five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Braves have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last nine Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Fifteen of the Braves' last 17 home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins' last five road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Marlins' last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 10 of the last 12 day games between the Marlins and Braves at Truist Park.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Alex Verdugo has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances with the Braves as favorites against the Marlins.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves' last seven games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Austin Riley has hit a home run in two of his last three home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored a run in each of his last six appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Michael Harris has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances against the Marlins at Truist Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against the Braves.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins' last nine Sunday day games as underdogs.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in five of his last six appearances in day games.
• Jonah Bride has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances against the Braves.
• Jonah Bride has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins' last five Sunday games as underdogs.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 

Atlanta comes into this matchup desperately needing a win in this game, as they are just 1-8 to start the season. The Atlanta pitching staff hasn’t been too bad, but their offense is hitting just .193 and they are one of the lower scoring teams in the MLB. Miami is over .500 through nine games, but they have allowed 10 runs in two of their last five games. The Marlins will be starting Alcantara in this game, who has allowed two earned runs in each of his first starts. The Braves are going with Holmes, who struggled against the Dodgers in his last start. I like both starting pitchers in this game, but I think Miami has a ton of value with how poorly Atlanta is hitting. Take the Marlins here.