Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Prediction 4/4/25 MLB Picks

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 3-3 this year after they won two out of three against Miami by scores of 10-4, 2-4, and 6-5. In game three, New York took a 1-0 lead in the first, but trailed 4-1 in the seventh, before tying the game and winning in extra innings. The Mets recorded nine hits and committed one error, while they were led by Alonso, who went 3-4 with one home run and four RBIs in the game. New York started Holmes, who allowed six hits and one earned run over 4.2 innings, while Minter allowed two earned runs and two hits over 0.2 innings in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Astros by scores of 1-3, 3-1, and 1-2. The New York pitching staff has a 2.38 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a .209 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 23 runs with a .188 batting average and a .275 on base percentage this year. Pete Alonso has led New York with two home runs and eight RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has added two home runs and three RBIs on the year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Blue Jays will beat the Mets 

• The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays' last four games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mets' last five games as home favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Blue Jays' last nine road games.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Mets' last eight games as favorites.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AL opponents.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against AL opponents.
• Tylor Megill has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded two hits in each of the Mets' last five home games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Starling Marte has hit a home run in each of the Mets' last three home openers.
• Starling Marte has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite in home openers.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• George Springer has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances in road openers.
• George Springer has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Blue Jays' last four games.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances in day games.
• George Springer has scored at least one run in five of his last six appearances in road openers.
• George Springer has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Kevin Gausman ranks T5th in the league for Wins (1) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Prediction 

Toronto comes into this matchup after winning five of their first seven games on the season and they are looking for their fifth straight win here. The Blue Jays will be starting Gausman, who was very sharp in his first outing, but will face a strong New York lineup in this game. The Mets have scored 6+ runs in two of their last three games, but they do need improvement in their batting average. New York is going with Megill, who has been inconsistent over the years, but did pitch well last time out. I think Gausman is the better pitcher in this game and Toronto’s offense has been the much better side. Take the Jays to get the win here.