New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4/4/25 MLB Picks

Max Fried will take the mound for the Yankees on Friday. The 31-year-old southpaw had an 11-10 record last season in 29 starts with a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 174.1 innings for the Atlanta Braves. This season, Fried posted a 3.86 ERA in 4.2 innings in his first start of the season against the Brewers.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (2-5, 0-0 Home) lost the first two series of the season to the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays. They got a win in each of the series, including the most recent 4-2 victory over the Rays, to avoid the series sweep. Oneil Cruz contributed offensively with a pair of RBI, while Paul Skenes secured a win after allowing no earned runs on three hits with six strikeouts and no walks in 7.0 innings.

This season, the Pirates average 2.71 runs per game (25th in the MLB) on a .197/.291/.278 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 3.96 ERA (15th) and 1.40 WHIP (22nd). Oneil Cruz leads the Pirates with a .261 batting average, two home runs, and four RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Pirates is Mitch Keller, who had an 11-12 record in 31 starts last season with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 178.0 innings of work. Keller registered a win against the Marlins this season with a 1.50 ERA over 6.0 innings of work.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last seven games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six Friday home games against AL East opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 home games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as home underdogs.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees' last four day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates' last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Yankees' last eight games as favorites.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 10 of the Pirates' last 12 day games at PNC Park.

Yankees vs Pirates Prediction

The Yankees won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, but the Pirates won three of the last four. Mitch Keller had a strong start in his first game of the season, but against the Yankees, he allowed a .339 BA in 62 at-bats so far in his career. Fried has better numbers against the Pirates; he allowed a .247 BA at 93 at-bats. The Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games, and I am backing them to win here as well. It's not going to be a comfortable win, but the Yankees will prevail.